IDC's Estimates For Apple's Mac Sales Look Too Low

IDC estimates that Apple sold 5.3 million Macs during the September quarter, which would be a 4% decline year over year from last year’s 5.51 million. It would be the first quarter with a negative year over year growth rate since Apple’s September 2013 quarter. The 528,000 unit quarter to quarter increase would be the smallest since the September 2010 quarter. (Note that I own Apple).

Over the past four years the Mac unit increase from the June to September quarter has been 947,000; 903,000; 802,000 and 1.1 million. The percentage increases have been 24%, 22%, 22% and 25%. If IDC’s 5.3 million unit estimate is correct the percentage increase would only be 11%, at best half of what Apple has experienced since 2010.

IDC projects that Apple increased its US Mac sales from 2.34 million units to 2.37 million or 1.6% year over year. When subtracting IDC’s US Mac sales from its worldwide estimate it shows that Apple’s international sales declined 7% year over year. Since Apple does not break out its Mac sales by geography anymore (it did through the September 2012 quarter) it is hard to determine historical trends but it seems unlikely that Mac sales declined year over year outside the US.

I’m estimating that Apple sold 5.9 million units, up 23% quarter over quarter. At $1,200 per Mac Apple would generate $7 billion in revenue and about 14% of total revenue.