Today is storm day. The Frankenstorm, still known as Hurricane Sandy, becomes a windy, wet, dangerous reality. Let’s hope everyone is prepared. Thanks to the remarkably effective Facebook page “Hudson Valley Weather” I feel I am as prepared as one could reasonably be, both practically and emotionally. I owe them a significant debt for the information they provided, as well as the resulting peace of mind that comes from being prepared.
Hudson Valley Weather, known on Facebook as HVWX1, describes its purpose as “provid(ing) localized and detailed forecasts for the Hudson Valley.” And that they do. They really get right what they do, both the weather forecasting and how to use social media to suit their purpose. I actually think they've stumbled on a secret sauce for how to leverage expertise for maximum impact: have expertise, enable activity both online and off, support (not create) community.
First, of course, is having the expertise. Alex Marra, the guy behind HVW, is a total weather geek (and I mean that as high praise). He loves making decisions under conditions of uncertainty, a decision process at the core of all weather forecasting. As data accumulate (usually by getting closer to the time of the event being predicted) he sharpens and then further sharpens the predictions offered. Plus, the HVW team educates constantly, answering questions as they arise.
For example, he was right last year about Irene before anyone else. And then he warned about the Halloween snow storm several days before anyone else. And Sandy? Here’s what he wrote last Monday, a full week ago:
The most popular name the next week will be "Sandy" and what is to ultimately become of the storm that as of this morning is nothing more then a cluster of thunderstorms in the Caribbean. There has been very little changes overnight in models thoughts on another landfalling tropical system for the Northeast, below are images valid for 10-30 and 10-31 of the Euro model showing a 950 mb storm making a southern NJ landfall and then slowly moving into central PA. We are still a week out from this storm but the model consensus is down right concerning. [snip] As with any major storm threat to the HV we will be updating on this situation frequently over the next week and as things change, we will share the information.
From "a cluster of thunderstorms in the Caribbean" to today's swamping of the Atlantic City Boardwalk, HVW has gotten it right at every step, not by being crystal ball perfect but by always grounding information in the appropriate degree of (un)certainty.
But meteorological expertise is not the full story. Clearly it is necessary, but not sufficient. The secret sauce also includes changing our relationship with information about weather. We have grown accustomed to being passively entertained by weather broadcasters. They shout and we listen. No thinking necessary. And when something dangerous, really dangerous like Sandy, comes along they have to shout louder. To them we are passive vessels into which they pour information rather than thoughtful people who can make good decisions when properly educated.
Want an example of such passivity? Consider the way CNN stuck a poor reporter (I think it was Ali Velshi) in the middle of an Atlantic City intersection so he could stand and try and talk in the middle of 90 mph winds. Of what value could that possibly have other than shouting at us, "this is serious!!!!" A message that would not have been necessary had they previously done what HVW did.
You see, HVW invites active engagement. They're not bringing us the weather. They're a neighbor saying something is going on and lets figure out what to do.
Since last Monday when the first hints of data emerged about what is taking place today, HVW has brought its followers along on the process of figuring things out. Different models were noted and compared. You saw experts think about what might happen, what might not. A likely outcome was described. Then changed. Then changed back again. Instead of being passively entertained by best case vs. worst case scenarios, HVW followers got to see scientific minds engaging the battle of most likely vs. second most likely. Along the way plans could be made as forecasts became more likely.
The last ingredient for the secret sauce is that HVW was not trying to “create community.” It was helping people already in a shared community—people who would share similar fates—find each other for reasonable, data-driven exchanges. The discussions that followed HVW posts were sometimes as important as the post itself. The weather education they provide builds on networks of people that already exist. It's globally accessible local education.
[Full Disclosure: the contractor who does some work on my house knows the HV weather guy and vouches for his total weather geek-dom and love of the Hudson Valley ... and now I can do the same.]
As of noon today HVW had 20,522 followers. There is plenty more room should you want to actively engage weather information about my little corner of the world, and along the way see social media at its best.
