iPhone Original/3G/4/5 (Photo credit: Yutaka Tsutano)
Yesterday, we looked at how platforms will fare next year. Today, we're taking a look at the mobile space more specifically.
While 2013 will not see a major iPhone release (this is an in-between year for Apple, which will probably release the iPhone 5s or some similarly named moderate upgrade to their existing device, which will not introduce too many features but will still sell better than any previous iPhone model)
Amazon, Microsoft, Google, will all introduce branded mobile phones: While Google has been pursuing a strategy of offering their Nexus line through partners (HTC, Samsung, and LG have all produced phones in the Nexus line), the company will leverage its acquisition of Motorola to produce its first fully in-sourced mobile device. In a similar fashion, Microsoft will introduce a smartphone to complete the Surface line (possibly under the same moniker) and displaying deep integration with the new Xbox and other Windows features. Not to be left out, Amazon may introduce an inexpensive Kindle phone, priced a between $0 and $99 with carrier contract. One of the possible innovations it will bring to the market could include a cut-rate price on service, possibly through an MVNO partnership with a carrier.
A resurgent T-mobile: With the failed acquisition from AT&T now behind it, Deutsche Telecom seems to be putting new wind in T-mobile’s sails, investing in the company to continue battling as the value provider in the market. As the company completes its acquisitions of Metro PCS, it will also continue a massive upgrade to bring its network up to date. Along the way, many in the telecom industry will look at T-mobile’s move to drop carrier subsidies on all phones it carries, bringing greater transparency in the pricing of mobile devices and opening the door for the company to support a greater number of new phones (yes, it will also get the iPhone this year).
New positioning for Sprint: Another reinvigorated player in the mobile telecom market will be Sprint, which is being acquired by Softbank. Masayoshi Son, Softbank’s CEO is an aggressive player in Japan and will bring new life to the market, first through the acquisition and integration of Clearwire into the Sprint brand and later through the introduction of new service plans. The net result is that the American mobile communication market will get substantially more competitive, with Sprint and T-mobile re-igniting competitive pressures and forcing Verizon and AT&T to get involved.
4G mobile device speeds becomes the new standard: Along the way, this year will see the growth of fourth generation telecom networks (branded as either 4G, LTE, WiMax or HSPA+). The devices offer substantially faster data speed than previous technologies, often matching what consumers have come to expect from WiFi signals. Expect the carriers to each provide heavy emphasis on the size of their respective 4G networks. As competition move to that end, 3G will become the low-cost option and other networks will be slowly phased out throughout the year.
Cross-channel and cross-device marketing becomes essential: On the marketing end, the ability to target ads across multiple device types (not just iPhones but any smartphones, as well as tablets, TV screens, and computers) will be a subject of much discussion as advertisers and marketers will be looking for solution providing end-to-end visibility into analytics across all channels (though mobile will be an emergent one with large brands switching substantial portions of their marketing budgets to tablets and smartphones).
Nokia abandons the mobile business: The biggest shocker (and what I suspect will be my most controversial prediction), though, will be the the departure of Nokia from the phone business as the company sells its mobile operation and infrastructure divisions to Huawei in order to focus on software and services. With the company’s bet on Windows 8 having failed in the marketplace, it will see Microsoft and Huawei competing for the mobile device division and will eventually sell its smartphone group to Microsoft and the rest of its telecom interests to Huawei.
