Ghosn: Bullish on the future. (Image credit: AFP/Getty Images via @daylife)
Looking to kick back, text, do your nails, read your iPad or mindlessly snack while driving, all without the inconvenience of potentially killing other people? Thankfully, the wait is nearly over. By the end of this decade autonomous driving will be ready for prime time, Nissan’s top executive said today, ushering in an era where entire families can share the boredom of long road trips once reserved only for small children strapped into the back seat.
Kidding aside, “there is a lot of marketing interest in it,” Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn told reporters today at the Detroit Auto Show. The change won’t be driven by Silicon Valley tech types looking for the next cool thing, though. An aging population with serious purchasing power and a hunger to retain their mobility as they get older will likely be the reason why driverless, or less-driven cars are adopted into the mainstream according to Ghosn.
Already Google has operated autonomous vehicles on California’s highways for years as part of a long-term experiment with the technology. Many other car companies, from Audi to Nissan to Honda are working on the case as well, with big trial run by the U.S. government currently underway. Improved mapping software, drive-by-wire systems, like those now in use on some of Nissan's Infiniti cars, are all part of the path.
“Without a doubt we are working on it,” Ghosn said.
That’s not surprising. Ghosn has been one of the most-forward thinking executives in the auto industry of the past decade.
But while his enthusiasm for developing new automotive technology is undisputed, the results are another story. The main topic of today’s news conference was Nissan’s announcement that it was cutting the price of the 2013 all-electric Nissan Leaf by more than $6,000, or 18% from its predecessor model. The car, championed by Ghosn, has struggled to find a market for a host of reasons, all well known. Not enough charging stations (when will the government build them?) reliability (that will improve as the technology matures, right?) and price (don't worry, it drops to $19,000 or so when you factor in all the juicy state and federal incentives) were all roadblocks to Leaf sales that precipitated the repricing and redesign.
But the most worrysome part of Leaf's business plan, at least in my mind, can't be fixed by engineers or marketers. The problem remains its deep reliance on government subsidies and infrastructure investment in an age where austerity, not moonshots, are in vogue.
The Leaf has already proved a pricey distraction for a company that saw its 2012 market share dip to 7.9% in the US from 8.2% the year before, all while promoting a goal of 10% market share by 2016. Overall, the company is targeting 8% operating profits on 8% of the world market. Currently it is at 6% and 6%, leaving a long way to go. A reviving US market and new low-cost offerings in India, Russia and Indonesia under the Datsun nameplate will help reach that goal, he said, as will a weakening yen, which should help exports.
Still, “I don’t consider 2012 a great year for Nissan,” he said. But he won’t measure the business based on one off year. “I’d worry if it was two years in a row.”
As for the Leaf, he remains bullish. “Zero emissions are here to stay,” he said. “I fundamentally believe it is the technology of the future.” That, and driverless cars.
