UPDATE: Bob Tregilus, who broke the story of the Nevada site, believes that while ground was broken, work has ceased at the site as Tesla and Panasonic have selected another location. The post below contains minor updates to that effect and, of course, we'll bring you whatever Tesla announces this week as we learn more.
Two reports from opposite sides of the globe are lending further credence to the notion that Tesla is prepared to announce it has broken ground on its $5 billion battery Gigafactory, perhaps as soon as this Thursday, when the company will report second-quarter earnings. First, Japan's Nikkei Asian Review stated that Panasonic and Tesla have reached an agreement on how much the battery supplier will invest in the initial phase of the factory and that "an official announcement on the partnership will come by the end of this month." Second, Bob Tregilus at Transport Evolved, who initially broke the story on the site in Nevada has done some additional reporting that has him believing "from ... reliable sources close to the project, that ground breaking for the Gigafactory began earlier this month at the Tahoe-Reno Industrial Center."
The Nikkei report is noteworthy mostly for its lack of equivocation. Tesla had announced last quarter that it had signed a "letter of intent" with Panasonic to co-develop the factory, but hasn't said much since. Nikkei says the two now have a "basic agreement" under which Panasonic will be responsible for the equipment used to produce the battery cells which Tesla will then assemble into packs. Each pack contains thousands of cells. Panasonic is said to be investing 20 to 30 billion yen in the first phase, slightly less than $200-300 million. The project will ultimately run $5 billion, of which $1 billion is expected to come from Panasonic but Tesla itself will be phasing its investment as capacity grows, so Panasonic putting in a smaller amount initially is consistent.
Tregilus, on the other hand, admits his conclusions about the Nevada site east of Reno are "speculative" but says he's now "99% certain" that the Gigafactory groundbreaking occurred there earlier this month. After spotting 50 large earth movers at a well-guarded site, Tregilus started asking questions of the locals nearby. Of those who would answer, a common theme emerged: "It was some sort of big battery factory, for electric cars they had heard," he wrote at Transport Evolved. "It was funny how almost none of them knew the name of the company, but when I asked, 'Does Tesla ring a bell?' they all said, yes, that’s the company."
When he tried to interview someone working on the site, which carries nothing more than a cryptic sign for "Project Tiger," the would-be subject wouldn't talk. A go-between who had tried to facilitate the interview told Tregilus the site-worked claimed: "It is the largest new building project in the country. They want it kept quiet to keep looky-loos away so they can get their jobs done. They are behind schedule." As noted above, however, after speaking with construction workers, Tregilus says work has stopped at the site in question, workers were let go, and it's quite possible that Tesla has selected another site in California, New Mexico, Arizona or Texas for the factory.
Within a couple of days, it's possible we'll learn whether all this cloak-and-dagger stuff relates to Tesla or not. It's also possible CEO Elon Musk did indeed order ground to be broken at more than one site, as he's said in the past. As noted yesterday, timing here is critical if Tesla hopes to hit its 2017 timetable for its higher-volume, $35,000 Model 3 sedan. For that reason, it seems certain that the company will have something to announce regarding the Gigafactory after the market closes on Thursday.
