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Myanmar Opens Up, Slowly

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The headlines from Citigroup's Vikram Pandit interview with the Financial Times, snagged as he sailed through Hong Kong, focused on his refusal to endorse big bank break ups. But buried in there is another tidbit:  Pandit's admission that he sees a bulk of his company's future growth in digitized transactions, made in the global south. Namely, in the cities of emerging market countries.

Perhaps, Yangon, the newest arrival. For U.S. and Asian companies, Myanmar is still in its "look-see" phase. Some, like Visa, are now dipping in, watching carefully to see if and how the nation unfolds its authoritarian grip. Yesterday's news, that the nation is ending its overt media censorship, is likely how the unfolding will go. Encouragingly, but uneven and imperfect.

Cole Buerger, a consultant with expertise on Myanmar and a friend, is tracking the country's leap from the gates. His take on the censorship change is a smart one:

Yet, decades of restrictions on freedom of the press remain, and the Ministry of Information will still ask that articles be sent to them in order to be monitored for criticism of the government. A Burmese journalist friend of mine based in Chiang Mai compared them to Thailand’s lèse majesté laws, except that in this case “all of the actions of the government in Naypyidaw are illegal to talk about.” He is exactly right in this instance. By lifting the overt censorship but retaining the threat of punishment for criticizing the government, they are simply asking the journalists and the outlets that employ them to censor themselves. One can hardly ignore the peer pressure that will be on journalists and editors from their colleagues to not publish anything that would jeopardize their jobs. Democratic Voice of Burma touched on this issue yesterday.

He also offers advice to companies eying corporate social responsibility there. I can't speak to the scene on the ground there---but in India companies, both foreign and domestic, appear to be shifting from CSR done flippantly to a more intentional approach.

As it continues its reforms, Myanmar has serious humanitarian issues to address. The systemic abuse of the Rohingyas is clear and deeply troubling. But the nation also has equally clear economic potential:

The IMF said in January that it saw “high growth potential” for the country. Citing stronger commodity exports and higher investment, supported by robust credit growth and improved business confidence, it estimated economic growth of 5.5 per cent in the 2011-12 fiscal year and forecast a rise to 6 per cent in the current year to March 2013. The government recently raised its estimate to close to 7 per cent in the current fiscal year.

If you're interested in watching the country, its reforms, and how multinationals and smaller shops track its terrain, his site is worth a read.