The NBA playoffs are here. And we know the formula. LeBron, Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, James Harden et al draw the viewers. And why not? They’re fun to watch, and they drive their clubs’ wins more than anyone else.
But big stars performing on the big stage is expected. The difference in winning or losing often comes down to the others – which team’s less-heralded players, making less money and usually branded “role players” if they aren’t big scorers - turn out to be more effective. The first round series in the East between Toronto and Brooklyn features a host of such underrated players: the Nets’ Shaun Livingston and Mason Plumlee, and the Raptors’ Amir Johnson, Terrence Ross, Jonas Valancuinas and Tyler Hansbrough. Any of those players could be as likely turn the series as much as the players leading each club in scoring and salary – the Raptors’ DeMar DeRozan and the Nets’ Joe Johnson.
With scorers enjoying most of the limelight, we turned to the advanced metrics of David Berri, an economics professor at Southern Utah University and author of the book Stumbling on Wins, who estimates the number of wins NBA players contribute during a season based on measurements like shooting percentage, steals and rebounds, within the context of each game’s pace (example: a player’s total rebounds carry less weight than the percentage of all rebounds available that he got while he was on the floor, which varies each game depending on the number of opponents’ shot attempts).
So which players in this year’s playoffs are the most underrated? The answer is always a bit subjective, even with numbers. Unlike the “Most Underpaid” and “Most Overpaid” NBA lists we came up with recently, determining the “Most Underrated” isn’t a pure calculation. Low salaries are a factor here, but generally we went with those who scored very high on Berri’s “Wins Produced” scale who were not All-Stars, and who, by and large, don’t get a lot of acclaim from the press.
Those who made it are models for why some previously struggling clubs made it to the playoffs this year for the first time in awhile. Charlotte’s Josh McRoberts’ all-around game did more to vault the team (7-59 two years ago) into the playoffs than those of higher scoring teammates Kemba Walker and Al Jefferson, Berri’s numbers show. The same is true for Washington’s Trevor Ariza, vis a vis his more flamboyant teammate, John Wall, and Atlanta’s DeMarre Carroll, a bigger contributor than All-Star teammate Paul Milsap.
And how do the San Antonio Spurs continue to roll on as a powerhouse, even as Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili age? Chalk it up in part to the team’s ability to bring in under-the-radar players like Marco Belinelli, picked up as a cheap free agent after he was a relative flop with four teams since being drafted in the first round out of Italy in 2007, and Patrick Mills, a onetime second round draft pick who spent much of his first three seasons in the NBA D-League before playing 81 games this season and averaging 10 points in 19 minutes a game while shooting 42.5% from three-point range.
Who will decide this year’s championship? Sometimes it’s not just the diamonds, it’s the diamonds in the rough.
