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Daschle: Mitt Romney Can Repeal 'Bulk' of Obamacare With a Senate Majority

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Former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle. (Photo credit: Center for American Progress)

With all of the media coverage around the 2012 Presidential election, including here, a lot of people have forgotten about a critical piece of the electoral puzzle: the battle for control of the U.S. Senate. Unless Republicans can retake both the White House and the Senate, they won’t be able to repeal Obamacare. But some people have argued that Republicans need 60, not 50, votes to get the job done. On Wednesday, however, former Democratic Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle said that “the bulk of [Obamacare] can be dismantled” if Republicans have 50 senators and the Presidency.

(DISCLOSURE: I am an outside adviser to the Romney campaign on health care issues. The opinions contained herein are mine alone, and do not necessarily correspond to those of the campaign.)

On Wednesday, Kaiser Health News hosted a debate between me and former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D., S.D.) on health-care reform and the 2012 election. Daschle was originally tapped to be President Obama's Secretary of Health and Human Services, along with running the White House's Office of Health Reform. Our discussion was wide-ranging, but the most notable comment came from Daschle. Karen Tumulty, national political correspondent of the Washington Post, asked Daschle, a President Romney “could use the reconciliation process to some degree, but how much of [Obamacare] could be dismantled?”

Daschle replied, “I would say that the bulk of it can be dismantled,” which jibes with what I and Jim Capretta have written about the reconciliation procedure. Daschle continued:

If a president is determined to do it, he can do three things. First of all, he can pass legislation. As you say, he can use reconciliation for certain amounts affecting the budget of the federal government. And that’s calculated to be somewhere in the 40 to 60 percent range, depending on how parliamentarians ultimately rule on some of these budgetary questions. So that’s number one.

Number two, through rule making. He can really do a lot to change the course of the legislation because–especially with the Affordable Care Act–the secretary and the president were given wide latitude. And third, he can defund it. He can just simply not dedicate resources within the budget. That will be his prerogative as he sets his own budget. So he could have a profound effect on the outcome of the ACA in a very short period of time.

Here’s the full video of our discussion:

Just over a year ago, Mitt Romney pledged that he would, indeed, attempt to repeal Obamacare via reconciliation if he gained the White House and Republicans gained 50 seats in the Senate. “On day one, granting a waiver for—to all 50 states doesn’t stop in its tracks entirely Obamacare,” he said at a Republican Presidential debate in New Hampshire. “That’s why I also say we have to repeal Obamacare, and I will do that on day two with a reconciliation bill, because, as you know, it was passed by reconciliation, 51 votes.  We can get rid of it with 51 votes. We have to get rid of Obamacare and return to the states the responsibility.”

Republicans would only need to control 50 seats in the Senate to pass a repeal bill, because in the case of a tie, according to the Constitution, the Vice President casts the deciding vote.

Today, Republicans control 47 seats in the U.S. Senate. Olympia Snowe’s retirement in Maine—a likely pickup for the Democrats—means that Republicans must gain four more seats to control the Senate. In the event that any Republicans would vote against repeal, they could use an extra one or two votes for safe keeping.

RealClearPolitics rates 11 of this year’s Senate races as toss-ups, with Republicans needing to win seven of those to get to 50 seats. And, based on the latest polls, they may not get there, whatever happens in the Presidential election.

So: if you have a view about whether you want to keep or repeal Obamacare, and you don’t live in a Presidential swing state, you should probably pay close attention to your local Senate race.

Follow Avik on Twitter at @aviksaroy.