No one concerned with Asia’s past, her present, or especially her future can or should view the worsening Japan-China territorial crisis without alarm, trepidation, and sadness. Especially, I suggest,
This picture taken on September 13, 2012 shows Chinese people protesting against Japan's... [+]
sadness.
I am in Shanghai these days and today felt compelled to take a taxi across town to the Hong Qiao district where the Japanese consulate general is located.
I did not expect to be able to get very close to the consulate, and I was not. In my last post I related press reports of anti-Japanese demonstrations over the weekend in dozens of cities around China. Along with many Japanese businesses, Japanese diplomatic missions were prime targets. Demonstrators breached security in Guangzhou and intruded into the consulate building there. Demonstrators in the thousands marched in a steady flow past the Japanese embassy in Beijing.
Today, September 18, the anniversary of the 1931 Mukden Incident, was expected to witness another surge of anti-Japanese demonstrations. The expectation was fulfilled in Shanghai as in scores of other towns and cities.
On September 18, 1931 an explosion destroyed a section of Japanese owned rail lines outside the city of Mukden (Shenyang). The Japanese owners cried sabotage (though the Chinese dispute this, contending rather that the bomb was planted by mid-level Japanese officers) and the incident provided the pretext for a short and successful Japanese military occupation of the area, that was followed by Japan’s establishment of the puppet state of Manchukuo. Thus began Japan’s long and savage 20th century aggression against China.
The entire Hong Qiao area--about one square mile--was enclosed in anti-riot semi-stationary fencing. Inside the secured perimeter were several inner circles of fencing as well as barriers on both sides of roads where in most cases Chinese militia were standing every ten paces. At intervals along the barricaded roads stood phalanxes of police and more militia in riot gear, including batons and shields.
I suppose it is the objective in these situations to be over-resourced. This was certainly true here.
From about 1 p.m. cluster after cluster of demonstrators, banners aloft and chanting anti-Japanese slogans, were funneled through the barriers and police/militia cordons, ensuring slow, steady, orderly progress toward their objective--the street directly in front of the Japanese consulate--from where they hurled abuse and rage over several more lines of shoulder-to-shoulder militia men, and over more anti-riot barricades, at the representatives of Japan inside.
What the Japanese and Chinese staff inside heard and saw had to be unnerving, sometimes frightening. For me it was both, and also profoundly saddening, to a point I began to feel ill.
打倒小日本！(Down with “little Japan”!) 勿忘国耻！(Do not forget out national disgrace!) 保我钓鱼岛！(Defend our Diao Yu Dao!) 抵制日货！(Boycott Japanese goods!) 打倒日本帝国主义！(Down with Japanese imperialism!) were the most common banners and slogans, shouted in unis
on by the largely young demonstrators. This much I expected. What I did not expect were banners and placards reading: 向日本开炮！(Open fire on Japan!) 核平日本！(“Pacify” (by nuking) Japan!) -- a play on words using the homonymous character for “nuclear” in place of “peace” (和）. 踏平日本！(Stomp Japan flat!)
Readers of “Whither Japan” know that I believe that Japan’s future growth and prosperity are inseparable from--indeed are dependent upon--continued, deepening integration of the Japanese economy and its business, and to some extent its society, with the vibrant economies and societies of its Asian neighbors, most importantly China.
After this afternoon, it is requiring a leap of faith to think that progress toward the integration Japan needs can now proceed at anywhere near the pace and depth required to keep Japan’s economy and society from sinking further into stagnation or even irreversible decline.
That the Noda government has made an epochal blunder--not on the level of the Mukden Incident, but still grave and seemingly (though I hope not) irreversible--may not be an exaggeration.
Against this afternoon’s scene, we should not be surprised that possibly epochal changes are being adumbrated in Japan’s relations not only with China, but also with the U.S., especially in the strategic and military realm.
Yesterday Secretary of Defense Panetta, after touching down briefly in Tokyo for a hastily arranged consultations with counterparts there, continued on his previously scheduled, high profile official visit to China. Just before leaving for the trip to Hong Qiao I caught the Chinese TV news cast of Panetta between honored in a military review ceremony in Beijing before he sat down with the Chinese minister of defense to discuss exchanges and confidence building exercises between the two countries’ forces.
It requires very little imagination to see where this may be leading. The question is where may it leave Japan?
