A couple of months ago, Eric Jackson wrote a hugely popular and controversial post here on Forbes called "Here's Why Google and Facebook Might Completely Disappear In The Next Five Years."
The core of his argument is a theory called population ecology or organizational ecology. Organizational ecologists assert that the executives of a company don't have nearly as much impact on the company's success or failure as do the larger effects of the industry and the economy. According to Jackson, "The organizational ecologists talked about the liability of obsolescence, which is a growing mismatch between an organization’s inherent product strategy and its operating environment over time."
He goes on to argue that Google and Facebook might be doomed to become obsolete as they fall prey to this 'growing mismatch' - they they won't be able to adapt quickly enough to mobile, which Jackson believes is the next wave of the internet. The principles of organizational ecology propose that no matter how smart or hard-working a company's management team is, their abilities will be trumped by the power of the changes in the environment to which they will be helpless to respond. Jackson theorizes that Google and Facebook could become the Yahoo and MySpace of the 2020's.
It's an interesting theory - but I'm still betting on the ability of human beings to adapt. So how can Google, Facebook, Amazon - and you, either as an individual or as a company - use this human capability in order to stay relevant and successful as everything continues to shift and change? Two ways:
Get curious about what's not working, and listen to the weirdos.
Get curious about what's not working. Most companies (and individuals) get nervous and embarrassed about
what's not working. And those feelings tend to lead to making excuses, placing blame or discounting the importance of the error. Unfortunately, all of these responses are 'anti-learning.' When you're madly trying to make a case that a problem isn't your fault, or that it's not that big a deal, it's hard to focus on why it happened or what you ought to be doing instead. I've always liked this quote from Thomas Edison about failure, "I have not failed, not once. I've discovered ten thousand ways that don't work." The words of a man consumed with curiosity about what's not working. I've noticed that people and companies that get curious about mistakes and failures see them much more clearly, and are able to continuously adapt and reinvent themselves.
Listen to the weirdos. Not all the weirdos - some people really are just nutty. But every company has a few people who are looking at what's next, or even what might be next...and they're very often exactly right. In one client company, a number of years ago, there was a really odd guy - super creative, but interpersonally strange. People disliked working for him, and he couldn't be bothered to come to staff meetings or respond to their messages, so his peers weren't big fans, either. Fortunately, the CEO of the company saw that he had insights into their industry that no one else did. She made him the chief creative for the company. It was the perfect spot for him: he solidified the identity of the organization, based on an industry-changing brand book, in a way that kept them out ahead of the competition for years.
And on an individual level: attend to you own inner wierdo sometimes. If you have a strange fancy that just keeps niggling at the back of your mind - try exploring it and see what happens. It may be some deeper intuition that's responding to factors your conscious, logical brain isn't even seeing. Listening to my own inner nutcase led me to start my business over twenty years ago. As the primary breadwinner in my family, with two young kids, it certainly wasn't the prudent thing to do. But the idea wouldn't go away: I could really see how it would work. I responded to that less-than-logical voice, and here I am: it was one of the best decisions I've ever made.
Google and Facebook may or may not implode or become irrelevant - but they, and you, can improve the odds by staying open to the new, the bad, the strange - and figuring out how they might be the key to the future.
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Look for Erika's latest book, Leading So People Will Follow, coming in October from Jossey- Bass.
Follow Erika on Twitter @erikaandersen.
Curious about Erika's company? Explore Proteus.
