A detail view of an ATM machine with a sign saying 'Day number 10.001 and still nothing has changed'... [+]
Money is streaming from Greek banks as fast as depositors can reach an ATM. What else seems in high demand? Shares in National Bank of Greece, which trade on the New York Stock Exchange through an ADR.
National Bank rose 30.1% to $1.59 in early morning trading. Nearly 2 million shares traded hands, meaning it's already seen more than double its normal daily volume.
"Daily spikes of such magnitude on such a stock is on the speculative side," says Morningstar analyst Maclovio Pina.
Greeks withdrew enormous amounts in the past two days, leading up to Sunday's elections, which may shed light on the country's clouded eurozone future. Reuters estimates $630 million to $1.8 billion in outflows. The Wall Street Journal puts the figure between $754 million and $1.1 billion.
In Athens, National Bank rose 27% to 1.31 euros. Shares in the other major Greek banks also ticked up. Alpha Bank increased 26% to 1.23 euros. Eurobank rose 31% to 0.64 euro. Piraeus reached 0.27 euros, up 0.05 euros.
American financial stocks help up well, too. Bank of America rose 0.7% to $7.55. Wells Fargo gained 0.7% to $31.81. Citigroup climbed 0.3% to $27.74. While JPMorgan Chase lost 0.2%.
As for National Bank, its new investors are buying a recently bailed-out bank. It received the lion's share of the latest Greek bailout package, taking nearly half of the $22.3 billion given to Greek banks.
What's more, National Bank recently needed to write-down all its Greek government debt, wiping out their equity. (Sorry, shareholders.) When it eventually repays the public money—should we say, If it does...?— current investors will see their shares diluted. (Again, apologies.)
Come Monday, the stock is unlikely to see light volume or middling price changes. If Greece seems ready to stick it out in the eurozone, the stock rises. Should it be poised to leave, one imagines National Bank's new-found investors will depart too.
"Any shift in this company's stock will not be driven by fundamental strength in the company. It will most likely be driven by speculative interest," says Pina, who's bearish on Greece's chances on pulling it all together. "Assuming that happens, though, the fact remains that the bank had to be bailed out."
Reach Abram Brown at abrown@forbes.com.
