Gold shone brightly for a few days this week before running out of steam, but if anyone thinks gold has done its best for 2016 they're not looking at what's driving the "barbarous relic", as Lord Keynes so unkindly and inaccurately described the precious metal.
A heady mix of financial, political and economic forces are behind the latest gold revival and none of them are short-term events.
Credit for this week's rise in the gold price to a two year high of $1314.87 an ounce was shared by confirmation that U.S. interest rates will be lower for longer and that British voters might agree with a proposition that their country should quit the European Union.
Somewhere in the background was news that global growth continues to slow and that a promising recovery in the Chinese economy is faltering.
Gold's Gorilla In The Room
And then there's the biggest uncertainty of all, the gorilla in the room that no-one is discussing, what will the U.S. economy look like in the first year of President Trump should he be elected in November.
Gold loves situation like this. It is the ultimate fall-back investment for a time when everything else has failed or when the yield on conventional investments makes zero-interest bullion look good, which is how it looks today to investors in German Government bonds which have turned negative.
How high gold will go is a question that more people are asking and while there is no way that question can be answered with any confidence it is safe to say that a series of future price-triggers can be clearly seen, starting with the June 23 "Brexit" vote in Britain.
Next Week's Brexit Vote Is Just The Start
The importance of Brexit to gold cannot be over-stated because while it might only involve one reluctant member of the E.U. opting out, the potential for a domino effect could be catastrophic with other Euro-skeptic countries joining Britain at the exit.
But, even if it is only Britain which quits the E.U. the effect on the common currency, the euro, could be significant with a rush by holders of euros into safer havens such as Swiss francs, and gold.
That other traditional safe haven, the U.S. dollar, will be less appealing than ever before thanks to the decision to keep a lid on interest rates and because of concern about the value of the U.S. currency should Trump's ratings rise.
No Place To Hide
The big problem confronting investors looking for a safe haven is that they're running out of places to hide that are not heavily influenced by government factors with gold one of the few assets that is largely beyond political interference.
Mervyn King, the recently retired Governor of the Bank of England, made a strong case for gold earlier this month, perhaps without appreciating at the time just how pertinent his comments were.
Writing in a magazine produced by the World Gold Council, an industry lobby group, Lord King said he had always been struck by the fact that over many years central banks, governments and individuals have held some gold despite the protests of economists.
"When Unexpected Things Happen"
"Obviously there is no high running return (yield), but when unexpected things happen, particularly when governments rise and fall, gold is a means of payment that everyone is always prepared to accept," he wrote.
That testimonial for gold is about as good as it gets but there is one potential area of disagreement, and that's when Lord King refers to "unexpected things".
Today, the "things" that could drive gold higher are not unexpected. They can be seen quite clearly, starting with the Brexit vote.
Ready, Set, Brexit
British voters, despite the urging of political parties from the left and the right, appear likely to vote against remaining in the E.U.
If that happens gold will look even more appealing when compared with assets denominated in pounds and euro.
Yes to Brexit could also drive interest rates down further in Europe, just as attention in the U.S. becomes increasingly focused on the Presidential election and investors worry about the future direction of the dollar.
A perfect storm of bad news is brewing, and that's good news for gold.
