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Sorry, Trump And Cruz: The Next President Won't Be Able To Dismantle Obamacare

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A parade of healthcare experts from doctors and policymakers to insurance industry executives and Washington lobbyists are telling the nation’s health journalists this weekend that they don't believe Republican presidential candidates will make good on promises to dismantle the Affordable Care Act.

Attendees at the Association of Health Care Journalists annual conference in Cleveland are hearing testimony saying the law, now six years old, has bipartisan support in Congress for several key aspects, including value-based initiatives and the effort to move away from fee-for-service medicine. There’s little, if any, serious discussion among healthcare experts about the “repeal Obamacare” mantra that continues to be floated by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz or reality show host and businessman Donald Trump.

Peter Lee, executive director of California’s health benefit exchange known as Covered California, told health journalists Friday that many Republicans outside of the media and political “glare” tell him: “We cannot pull this thing back,” in reference to the ACA.

No matter who is elected President, speakers including Lee are telling journalists here that there would no longer be a “personalized lightening rod of Obamacare,” as President Barack Obama’s second term ends in January 2017. That alone will dampen some of the enthusiasm for repealing the ACA once a new chief executive is in the White House.

More broadly, the Congress would still have to approve any changes to the law, and gridlock remains in Washington and isn’t expected to go away next year even if the GOP would retain control of the U.S. House and U.S. Senate.

Health reforms under the health law are essentially too entrenched and many not part of the Presidential campaign and election-year politics, such as Medicare and private insurance payment forms under the law.

Marilyn Tavenner, president of America’s Health Insurance Plans, a trade group and lobby representing some of the nation’s largest health insurers including Anthem , Cigna and Humana , said she hears from Republicans and Democrats who like accountable care organizations (ACOs).

Such relationships are critical as the Affordable Care Act, private insurance companies and self-insured employers increase their contracts with accountable care organizations (ACOs), which group providers of medical care together to care for a population of patients. If the group of providers under the ACO reduces costs over a year’s time, it shares in the savings with the insurance company

In the Medicare program, shared savings has reduced spending by several hundred million dollars and is a model proliferating in the private sector and backed by myriad employers.

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services has pushed payment from Medicare away from fee-for-service reimbursement that rewards volume of care delivered and has been shown to encourage fraud as well as unnecessary tests and procedures. By 201850% of Medicare payment will be shifted to value-based models, including payments based on “episodes,” which has been a form of payment GOP presidential candidate and Ohio governor John Kasich has pushed in his state’s healthcare system.

The health journalists meeting runs through Sunday. Stay tuned.

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