It's quite possible you've seen an Adam Sandler film in the past couple of years. Probably not That's My Boy (2012), which failed to crack $60 million worldwide. Good chance it wasn't Jack and Jill (2011) either. Perhaps Blended, which reunited Sandler with Drew Barrymore? That didn't even get to $50 million, so maybe not. Oh, wait, there was Grown Ups 2 last year. That was a hit, drawing nearly a quarter billion in box office. Of course, according to nearly every review, it was also something else that rhymes with hit, as were the other three films. Consider that for a moment then contemplate that Netflix just signed Sandler to a four-film deal where it will bankroll him to make movies like those. And, if recent history is any guide, theaters may well refuse to show any of those films.
The theater chains and Netflix are already in a row over the video streamer's planned release of a sequel to Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon slated for next August. They are uncomfortable with the fact Netflix will make the movie available at no additional cost on its all-you-can-watch service while asking theater chains to sell tickets as if it's a major Hollywood release. Theaters have fought for years now to preserve the "window" whereby they gain exclusive access to content for the first weeks -- sometimes months -- which allows them to charge high ticket prices -- the bulk of which then goes back to studios. (Were it not for concession sales, most movie theaters would have gone bankrupt long ago.)
What this means for Sandler and Netflix is that instead of gaining some marginal revenue from theater chains, at least domestically they are likely to pull in close to nothing. That makes even hits like Grown Ups 2 a potential miss. That film cost $80 million. But for Netflix, the return on that investment would be some kind of hard-to-calculate effect on new subscribers gains and reduced churn. Even if he makes a beloved Sandler winner like Happy Gilmore or The Wedding Singer, it might not be worth $80 million to Netflix. Part of the reason is that things like DVD/BluRay sales and pay-per-view streaming revenues are likely to be nearly invisible given that so many households will get the movie free on Netflix.
But another effect for Netflix is that of the perception of quality. CEO Reed Hastings has called HBO his top competitor and with season 2 of Orange is the New Black, Netflix can begin to argue its producing HBO-quality programming. Of course, this is all subjective, but House of Cards has become trashy entertainment after a serious bid for the "quality television" mantle in its initial season. That doesn't mean it's bad, but, well, it's not HBO.
Sandler, generally, makes junk. Let's take a look at the Rotten Tomatoes scores of his recent films. Blended (13%), Grown Ups 2 (7%), That's My Boy (20%), Jack and Jill (3%). Those scores are so bad, most people -- objectively -- would agree with the critics. In fact, not one of the films has an audience rating higher than the 60s. Even when Sandler fans watch these films, typically half or more dislike them. Sandler's hits from the 1990s scored in the 80%+ range on the audience meter. His work regularly appears on lists of the year's worst films.
I'm no Sandler hater. At his best, the aforementioned Happy Gilmore (60%) and The Wedding Singer (67%), he was hysterical -- and beloved. I'll even argue with friends over the merits of Fifty First Dates, which like Barrymore's character in the film, I could watch over and over again without getting bored. That, incidentally, scored a 44% on Rotten Tomatoes, more than double the best result of any of his recent work.
Sandler is a guy who once made studios a fortune and now still does, albeit mostly when doing voiceovers in animated fare. Oh, right, and maybe 1 in 4 to 5 times when doing live action. Whatever comes of the Netflix films, they are likely to be lowbrow, likely to be awful, near certain to be panned, and almost impossible to quantify as business successes for Netflix. Part of the rationale for the deal is that his films are popular on Netflix, though the company didn't mention whether it was talking about movies made during the current millennium or not. Instead it put out a kitschy press release which could have been dismissed as an April Fool's joke were it not for the fact that the calendar is literally opposite that time of year.
In Netflix logic, this deal is a win. It cements the company as an even more serious player in Hollywood. First, make a sequel to Crouching Tiger, a gimmick hit movie from 13 years ago. Next, make a multi-picture deal with a guy who was big-time bankable when Bill Clinton was president. Incidentally, even then Sandler would produce his share of stinkers. This Netflix deal smells like one already.
