Russia has been fiercely opposing integration of the former Soviet Union republics of Eastern Europe into the “western” blocs, such as NATO and the EU. Moscow has demonstrated readiness to use military means to avert this process. In August 2008, Russia invaded Georgia as punishment for its active pursuit of NATO membership and gravitation towards the West. Six years later, the Kremlin annexed Crimea and has been waging a covert war against Ukraine for its decision to ally with the EU and declining to join the Russia-dominated Eurasian Customs Union (ECU).
Despite the risk, Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova are still leaning to the West. On June 27, these countries signed an Association Agreement with the EU bringing them closer to Europe. A more balanced Azerbaijan is closely watching and to Moscow’s fear may consider following the suit at some point in future. But is this the right choice? Is allying with the EU a better alternative than integrating with the ECU comprising Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan? If the “quality” of the EU and the ECU member states matter then the answer put in numbers seems obvious.
Economic Opportunity
Measured on GDP the EU economy dwarfs that of the ECU. Estimated at $16.17 billion, it is 5.6 times larger than the Russia-led union, providing a larger market for future members. Stacked up against the 28 EU members based on GDP per capita, the ECU member states do not fare any better. Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan share the bottom five spots with Bulgaria and Romania.
(Credit: 2014 World Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation)
Comparing economic attractiveness of the ECU versus the EU is not just a factor of estimating GDP and its per capita distribution. Economic freedom is an important consideration as a comprehensive indicator of nations’ prosperity and economic growth potential. According to the Index of Economic Freedom by Heritage Foundation, which ranks 186 countries worldwide, the countries with higher degree of economic freedom enjoy stronger economies, healthier societies, greater human development and poverty elimination. Comparing the ECU and the EU suggests that Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova could expect better economic spillover effect from the latter. All of the EU members except for Greece are ranked as mostly or moderately free. Russia and Belarus, being mostly unfree, occupy the 140 and 150 worldwide ranks, correspondingly. Only Kazakhstan offers moderately free economic environment.
(Credit: 2014 Economic Freedom Score)
Quality Of Institutions And Corruption
Economic opportunity and quality of life are largely affected by public institutions and level of corruption. The World Governance Indicators compiled by the World Bank rates 215 countries and territories based on government effectiveness and control of corruption. The higher the scores, the more effective governments are and lower the level of corruption is. A quick glance at the scatter diagram shows that compared to the EU member states, Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan are at the bottom of the barrel. When the EU and the ECU countries are put in worldwide perspective based on the Corruption Perceptions Index 2013 rankings by Transparency International, the difference is even starker. Out of 176 countries, Belarus (123), Russia (127) and Kazakhstan (140) are ranked among the most corrupt. For comparison, the most corrupt EU member Romania (69) is still 54 ranking spots ahead than the least corrupt ECU member Belarus.
(Credit: Worldwide Governance Indicators, World Bank)
Political Rights And Civil Liberties
A comparison of the ECU versus the EU in a broader political and societal context reveals that the EU citizens enjoy greater political rights and civil liberties. Freedom House rates all 28 EU member states as “free.” The annual rating is based on scoring a whole gamut of political rights’ and civil liberties’ indicators in 195 countries. Free countries tend to have competitive political process, robust opposition, better minority representation, freedom of expression and independent judiciary. From three possible statuses–free, partially free and not free–Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan are rated as “not free.” The countries of this status tend to have restricted political rights and civil liberties. Holding political prisoners and repressing freedom of expression is common in such states. The gap is even more evident when the scores of seven political rights and civil liberties are individually plotted. On all of the seven indicators the ECU countries fall behind Bulgaria–the EU member with the lowest overall score.
(Credit: Freedom in the World 2013, Freedom House)
Associating with any union has spillover effects which reflect in political, economic or social life. If the goal of any transitioning former Soviet republic, such as Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, is achieving higher economic growth, advancement of political and civil rights and institution building, the choice between the EU and the ECU is a no-brainer. The EU’s superiority also explains why the Kremlin uses military power to coerce its former satellites to stay in Russia’s orbit. Moscow just has much less to offer.
Disclaimer: The expressed opinions belong to the author and do not represent the opinion of the government of the District of Columbia.
