If the general winds of buzz and tracking are to be believed, Dwayne Johnson's Hercules is looking like what amounts to a swing-and-a-miss. The $110 million Paramount (
This is the last weekend in July, so summer is basically 3/4 over with most of the August releases falling into the "low-to-moderate risk" category. With just one month to go, what we've seen this summer is a rather surprising lack of out-and-out box office disasters. Oh sure, we've had some "disappointments in relation to cost" or "will make money, but it should have arguably grossed more" contenders, but the kind of over budgeted and panic-inducing disaster has been in short supply. There was no The Lone Ranger ($260 million on a $220m budget, resulting in a $190m write-down for
We can argue that certain "big" films arguably should have been bigger.
A Million Ways to Die in the West was a disappointment for Universal and Seth McFarlane, but it still doubled its $40 million budget worldwide. Disney's Million Dollar Arm was a miss, but at $25m, its $40m worldwide gross means it is more of a moral defeat (Disney trying to prove it can still make old-school Disney melodramas alongside the tent poles) more than a financial disaster for the Mouse House. The Adam Sandler/Drew Barrymore rom-com Blended says much about Sandler's star-power, but the Warner Bros. release has earned $104m thus far on a $40m budget. Even Mom's Night Out managed to double its $5m budget. It's no hit, but no one is going to lose their shirt over it, especially if it is sold to religious organization post-theatrical.
Jersey Boys may not break even before after-theatrical, but the $40 million Clint Eastwood musical adaptation was never going to be a blockbuster, and it's been a leggy bit of counter programming, earning $44m domestic and $12m overseas thus far. Earth to Echo has nearly doubled its $13m budget ($31m domestic) and Deliver Us from Evil has earned its $30m budget domestically with overseas numbers still to come. And of course, because it helps to be reminded, Melissa McCarthy's Tammy, whose alleged under performance started much of the hand-wringing in the first place, has earned $71m domestic on a $20m budget with $15m-$20m left domestically. This weekend's Sex Tape is an under-performer, but summers don't live or die by $40m comedies that hit $45m-$60m domestic.
We hear lots of discussions about the overall lower summer box office, but less discussed is the relatively reasonable budgeting being practiced by the major studios. There have been three $200m+ films (Amazing Spider-Man 2, X-Men: Days of Future Past, and Transformers: Age of Extinction) and another five $145m-$180m productions (Godzilla, Maleficent, Edge of Tomorrow, How to Train Your Dragon 2, and Dawn of the Planet of the Apes). For the rest of the summer, we have the $110m Hercules, the (rough estimate) $150m+ Guardians of the Galaxy, and two presumably $100m-$125m entries (Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and Expendables 3). Everything else has been below $100m; often well-below $100m.
If Hercules A) turns out to be good and/or B) opens well here or abroad this weekend you'll hear it here first and I'll be happy as a clam. I like Dwayne Johnson as a movie star (I'm the guy who saw Faster on opening day). Heck I even like Ratner as I find Red Dragon and Tower Heist to be painfully underrated. No press screenings don't necessarily mean doom, as Paramount's G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra opened without press screens and still scored a $54 million debut and earned $300m worldwide. But presuming the film sputters out in America and can't make up the lost ground overseas, it will still be impressive that we've gone almost the entire summer without a mega-flop. We haven't had any insane Lone Ranger/Battleship type fiascoes this year. And if Hercules indeed cost $110m, it's not really on that level of risk either. We may likely go the entire summer without a real box office catastrophe.
There is indeed an open question concerning how well Hercules will perform this weekend and thus over its theatrical run. The more interesting note is that, even if it does outright tank (which I'm not saying it will), it will be the first unquestionable major studio miss of summer 2014. That's arguably something worth celebrating no matter where the total cumulative box office ends up this summer compared to last summer. And if Hercules can defy the current odds, well that's an even happier box office ending both for the film and its participants and for the first 3/4 of summer.