Predicting The 2016 Tony Award Winners

This Sunday June 12th, The Tony Awards will be held at the Beacon Theatre and broadcast live on CBS. Past winner and Late Late Show host James Corden will run the night, and the industry is primed for record-breaking viewership thanks to one Alexander Hamilton. Below are my predictions, based on what I know of the voters’ tastes, past trends, box office performance, critical reception, and word on the street from producers and other industry insiders.

Best Musical: Hamilton

Because duh. (Though I won't lie - Waitress made me cry way more than Hamilton did. You matter to me, Sara...sniff...)

Best Play: The Humans

If I had my druthers, King Charles III would sweep whole whole ceremony, but alas, the voters are aligned differently. The Humans is still excellent - a new American play with no movie stars, selling like hotcakes? More of those, please.

Best Revival Of A Musical: The Color Purple

Though She Loves Me won the Drama Desk,  The Color Purple is a better example of how Broadway wants this season to be seen: diverse, powerful, and brimming with new talent. She Loves Me has charm where Purple has heart, and Tony voters love them some heart.

Best Revival Of A Play: A View From The Bridge

Some people are predicting Long Day's Journey Into Night because it's still running, but Bridge was so powerful it cast a shadow over the entire season, even months after it closed.

Best Actress In A Musical:  Cynthia Erivo (The Color Purple)

Easiest prediction next to Hamilton for Best Musical. Have you seen the show? No? Go see it, and you'll know why this is a lock.

Best Actor In A Musical: Danny Burstein (Fiddler On The Roof)

A tough call, but I think Leslie Odom Jr. and Lin-Manuel Miranda will split the Hamilton vote (Miranda is the face of the show, but Odom is irrefutably the better performer). Burstein's been nominated five times so far without winning - he's this year's Kelli O'Hara.

Best Actress In A Play: Jessica Lange (Long Day's Journey Into Night)

I hope I'm wrong about this one. Lupita should get it for Eclipsed, but it seems folks are lining up to give Lange her first Tony after 10 years away from the stage.

Best Actor In A Play: Jeff Daniels (Blackbird)

Honestly, this one's anyone's guess. Some are predicting Frank Langella, but he's already got three Tonys, and Tim Piggott-Smith's show closed months ago. Ditto Mark Strong. Gabriel Byrne has lots of supporters, but I think Daniels will pick up the pieces and take home the trophy he missed for 2009's God Of Carnage.

Best Featured Actress In A Musical: Renée Elise Goldsberry (Hamilton)

She owns one of Hamilton's prime showstoppers and has become the female voice of the mostly-male hit. Jane Krakowski is right at her heels, though.

Best Featured Actor In A Musical: Daveed Diggs (Hamilton)

An anomaly. With three actors from Hamilton competing, I would normally predict a split vote (à la Fun Home). But Diggs has so thoroughly monopolized the spotlight that there doesn't seem to be any real competition.

Best Featured Actress In a Play: Jayne Houdyshell (The Humans)

The most heartbreaking performance in a play full of them. She's been nominated twice in the past - I think this is her year. The other four actresses are from just two plays, and even if Jane wasn't so strong they'd still split their respective votes.

Best Featured Actor In A Play: Reed Birney (The Humans)

Again, I hope I'm wrong. Not because Birney doesn't deserve it, but because Michael Shannon plays drunk better than anyone I've ever seen. I'm still not convinced he didn't actually do ten shots of Jameson at intermission.

Best Original Score: Lin-Manuel Miranda (Hamilton)

Because duh, again.

Best Book Of A Musical: Lin-Manuel Miranda (Hamilton)

There's been plenty of hubub already about how voters (and most of the industry) don't know what "Book" means. When in doubt, they'll vote the ticket. Which means Hamilton.

Best Direction Of A Musical: Thomas Kail (Hamilton)

Now that the New York Times writes a puff piece each day about the thing, a lot of people forget how nuts Hamilton's concept originally sounded. A hip-hop musical about the founding fathers, none of whom are played by white actors? Huge credit to Kail for turning the concept into an unimpeachable reality.

Best Direction Of A Play: Ivo van Hove (A View From The Bridge)

Distilling Arthur Miller's semi-classic into its purest form is no easy task, but van Hove did it, seemingly without effort. Everything about the production screamed "Artistic Vision" in the most powerful, unpretentious way.

Best Orchestrations: Alex Lacamoire (Hamilton)

Lacamoire's work is almost more impressive than the score itself. Translating hip-hop instrumentation to musical theater without compromising the essential feel of either genre is a Herculean feat.

Best Choreography: Savion Glover (Shuffle Along)

Hamilton's Andy Blankenbuehler provides stiff competition, but Glover's incredible tap work is just too hard to deny. It's also the only award Shuffle is likely to take home, and the voters know it - they won't want Broadway's first all-black musical to be completely snubbed.

Best Scenic Design In A Play: David Zinn (The Humans)

Not only is it the only contender still running, but the double-decker set of The Humans is intrinsic to the deeply layered material - it's impossible to imagine the play without it.

Best Scenic Design In A Musical: David Rockwell (She Loves Me)

Anyone who picks Hamilton here is just voting the ticket - and is also a complete dingus. Rockwell's set is one of this season's most exquisite creations: a giant confectionery music box that unfolds like a dream.

Best Costume Design In A Play: Tom Scutt (King Charles III)

A tough call - four very different productions, calling for very different styles and periods of dress. Scutt has the best shot here for the royal robes and Middleton-esque flair of King Charles III, but it could go to any of the nominees.

Best Costume Design In A Musical: Paul Tazewell (Hamilton)

I think this will be another case of "vote the Hamilton ticket" but Shuffle Along's Ann Roth has a lot of supporters. Tazewell also wears the uncommon badge of black male costume designer, which could carry extra weight this season.

Best Lighting Design In A Play: Justin Townsend (The Humans)

Anyone who's seen The Humans knows the incredible tension Townsend wrings from the show's finale, using carefully-timed blackouts to turn the drama into a near-horror experience. I still get anxious just thinking about it. Brr.

Best Lighting Design In A Musical: Howell Binkley (Hamilton)

Again, voting the ticket - which doesn't mean Binkley didn't do excellent work on the show. "Wait For It" and "You'll Be Back" in particular are visually defined by terrific lighting choices. The duo of Jules Fisher and Peggy Eisenhauer would be the other top pick for Shuffle Along.

Best Sound Design: No One

Come on, Tonys - get your act together and bring back this award!