BETA
This is a BETA experience. You may opt-out by clicking here

More From Forbes

Edit Story

Forrester: Without Jobs "Apple Will Coast, And Then Decelerate"

This article is more than 10 years old.

All things considered, Apple had a very successful financial quarter. The Cupertino giant sold 35.1 million iPhones, 11.8 million iPads, 7.7 million iPods and 4 million Macs. In all, that's a total of 58.6 million devices sold over the quarter, which works out at some 645,000 sold every day.

The company also has over $110 billion in the bank, no debt, and is expending vigorously into new markets such as China.

Things are looking really good for Apple.

Given all this, it might seem a rather odd time to start predict the demise of the company. But that's exactly what George Colony, CEO of research and analysis firm Forrester, is predicting. According to Colony, the catalyst for this fall from grace is something that couldn't be helped or avoided -- Steve Jobs' death.

When Steve Jobs departed, he took three things with him: 1) singular charismatic leadership that bound the company together and elicited extraordinary performance from its people; 2) the ability to take big risks, and 3) an unparalleled ability to envision and design products.

Without Jobs, or another charismatic leader at the helm, Colony predicts that Apple is heading for rocky times. He believes that the company will be able to coast for some 12 - 24 months, based on the plans and products already in the pipeline, but that beyond this period Apple will move "from being a great company to being a good company" with this transition bringing with it "a commensurate step down in revenue growth and product innovation."

"Like Sony (post Morita), Polaroid (post Land), Apple circa 1985 (post Jobs), and Disney (in the 20 years post Walt Disney)," says Colony, "Apple will coast, and then decelerate."

Not all share Colony's view. Ben Bajarin, principal analyst at Creative Strategies, believes that "Apple is poised to remain dominant for quite some time" because "fundamentals as a vertically oriented organization, retail strategy, brand, marketing, ecosystem, and more, are fundamentals that don’t go away just because Steve Jobs is no longer with us."

Bajarin also says that Apple has an internal culture that he doesn't see anywhere else, and that "the energy, excitement, and passion with employees inside Apple is like that of a startup," and that this "is likely to keep them growing well into the future."

Who's right? Only time will tell.