Recent numbers from ABI Research on the market share of mobile smartphone platforms splits out the two major variants of Android. Both Google's flavor of Android (namely the Android variant used by members of the Open Handset Alliance, with the Google Play support and services), and the Android Open Source Project, which is free for any manufacturer to base their handset on, are listed.
Google's preferred version of Android is on 65%, while the Android Open Source Project (AOSP) is on 20%, comfortably ahead of iOS and Windows Phone. While many people are looking at that 20% share as being a danger for Google, I think that Google has found a workable strategy which allows AOSP to be used to support Google's Open Handset Alliance version of Android.
At the very least, the 20% market share of handsets powered by AOSP represent a minor win for Google. Someone choosing an AOSP powered handset still has an easy option to move to smartphones powered by Google's version of Android when the time comes to upgrade. It would be far less useful to Google if this 20% share belonged to BlackBerry's BB10 or Microsoft's Windows Phone.
Would it be better for Google's bottom line if everyone was under the Google Play roof? Of course it would be. That said, the Android Open Source Project is a very nice safety net, capturing many handset manufacturers and users into the Android ecosystem rather than have them go elsewhere. It helps defend Google's income derived from its version of Android, which is always a good goal for any company, especially one based in technology.
Not every Android user is worth the same to Google, so the Mountain View based company can also draw comfort from the fact that the major it of AOSP handsets are from China and India. If AOSP pushes into territories with higher ARPU then there would be a point of concern, but it's not a pressing danger.
The AOSP derived Amazon Kindle Fire HDX 8.9
When Android was struggling to get a foothold in the smartphone market, the open source nature of Android as a whole gave Google an important weapon for marketing, and appealing to networks and handset manufacturers. As the Android market share reaches 85%, Google no longer needs AOSP for the shiny identification badge.
It now serves a much more important role
It acts as a catcher for Android. If a company decides not to deal with Google and Google Play, then they can fall back to Android via Open Source. Yes there will need to be a lot more work done to bring in applications and APIs that replicated the unwanted software that is part of Google Play. But the default position when rejected by Google's Android is to move to the 'open' version of Android, as opposed to the competition. AOSP has many advantages for Google, and it remains a key part of the strategy. Note that the new UI look in Android L will be part of the Open Source Project.
It is a part that, much like the 'short' cup in Starbucks, the company would prefer not to become too well-known or widely used. With Google continuing to pull in more functionality and API calls under the closed licensing of Google Play (as well as the associated services and applications) any manufacturer looking at using AOSP requires a significant investment of time and developers to recreate the environment expected by consumers.
Amazon has just about managed this feat with the Kindle Fire range of tablets (the jury is still out on the Fire Phone). The dying breath of Nokia's engineers handed Microsoft an AOSP platform under Microsoft's cloud based services. That idea has been suppressed, and the Nokia X family looks ready to be rolled into the Windows Phone plans.
Google is not the only game in town for Android, but it is the most attractive and the best solution you can grab off the shelf. With AOSP Google makes sure that Android is also the second-most attractive option on the shelf, with the users handed an easy route to upgrade to the more attractive option (in the eyes of Google) when they are ready.
Not only is Google steering the platform with the largest market share in the Google Play focused version of Android, the company is also ensuring the continued success of the second platform in the Android Open Source Project.
