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The Numbers Say Leaving Matt Harvey In Was The Wrong Move

This article is more than 8 years old.

As a fan, there was no way you didn't want to see Matt Harvey start the ninth inning of Game 5 of the World Series Sunday night. But as a manager, it was the worst decision Terry Collins could've made.

Watching Harvey argue –– no, demand –– his way back into the game was exhilarating, especially if you consider the backstory. Less than two months earlier, he was being vilified across the Tri-state area for deflecting questions about whether he would adhere to an innings limit. For nearly one week, it appeared as if the Mets' ace would abandon them after throwing 180 frames, even if that meant sitting out the postseason. And now, as the calendar turned to November, he was insistent on throwing inning number 217.

Harvey was cruising through eight shutout innings Sunday night, and the Mets held a two-run lead as the ninth was about to begin. When pitching coach Dan Warthan informed Harvey he was being pulled, the inflamed hurler lashed out.

It was the kind of moment that made you want to jump off your couch. It was also the moment in which Collins should've held his ground and told Harvey "no."

The numbers are indisputable: pitchers are almost always less effective each time they go through the batting order. Hitters get more comfortable in the box and are often able to take advantage of a tiring starter. Harvey is no exception.

This season, batters hit .198 against Harvey the first time they saw him. That number increased to .216 the second time around, .255 the third time through and .263 when the number of plate appearances increased to four. Lorenzo Cain, who led off the ninth for the Royals, had already faced off against Harvey three times. Mets closer Jeurys Familia, meanwhile, held hitters to a .207 batting average this season and struck out more than a batter per inning.

Cain worked a six-pitch walk and up came Eric Hosmer, who hit .305 with runners on base this year. For the second consecutive night, Hosmer hurt the Mets late –– except this time he didn't need a ball to scoot under Daniel Murphy's glove. He lined a ball to left field and Cain scored with ease. The Royals were within one.

Collins' gaffe isn't the sole reason why the Mets lost the game; if Lucas Duda makes an accurate throw to home plate, Hosmer likely would've been out by a couple of feet. But it got the Royals' rally started, and the champaign starting flowing not too long afterwards.