The discovery of some reworked icons (posted by Android Police) points towards a refresh of Android's user interface in the next iteration of Google's mobile operating system, but Android 5 can do more than change the look and feel of the world's most popular smartphone OS. It can bind the manufacturers even more tightly to Google's vision of Android, Google's vision of mobile, and Google's vision of the future of consumer electronics.
Perhaps it will be Android 4.5, but I think that some of the potential changes that could show up would merit a jump in version number to signify the importance of this release. It depends on how subtle Google will want to be about the update. With that caveat in place, I'll go with Android 5 for this article.
Goole will be playing the big ticket visual changes close to their chest, but there are three areas of the Android platform that I'm expecting from Mountain View that won't be heavily advertised.
The first is the continuing process of taking utility and functionality out of the open source parts of Android and moving them into proprietary applications and suites such as Google Play Services. To the consumer, these are the items that make an Android phone an Android phone. They want Chrome, they want Gmail, they want the Photo browser. Manufacturers looking to sell a mainstream handset have little choice but to include these applications, and Google has one bundle on offer... you take everything, you must have everything pre-installed, and you have certain conditions to meet on icon and widget placement.
I expect Google to move more apps and API support into Google Play, and away from the open source release of Android, making it harder for manufacturers to consider forking Android at the 'free' level in the way that Amazon and Nokia have in the recent past.
Google may also take the opportunity to refresh the rules over the use of branding, UI elements, and the environments that manufacturers use to differentiate their handsets. Samsung's TouchWiz has been limited by agreement after the South Korean company pushed the envelope with the UI in the Tablet Pro and Note Pro revealed at the start of the year. Google will want to keep Android as the key name in the consumer's mind, so expect the Android name and logo to be a prominent part of the packaging and the opening splash screen.
Android will start to look more like Android, on more devices, as Google strives to make more of a connection with the consumer.
There's also the question of wearables. Android's recent release of Android Wear could bring any manufacturer using Android to power a 'wearable' device into the Open Handset Alliance and the regulations that are in place to maintain 'one Android' across all the partners. Android 5 will naturally be used in smartphones, phablets, tablets, and a handful of laptop-style transformer devices, but it could also be a common base for wearables. As I've previously discussed here on Forbes, that could provide Google with a way to dominate the smartwatch and wearable market from the start, without having to go for an 'open' approach and pulling back functionality as with smartphones. Tying smartphone and smartwatch manufacturers together under Android is an attractive business option.
Android 5 will be a roaring commercial success, but if Google continues to be greedy and make a land grab for more control, it could be the start of a process that could weaken the relationship between Google and the manufacturers.
All of these elements would increase the prominence of Android to the consumer and hand Google more control over the operating system. As it stands the manufacturers are short of alternatives to going with Android. Google must be wary of Microsoft's Windows Phone platform. Redmond has made overtures with a free licence and the improvements in Windows Phone 8.1 it would be a huge gamble to completely ditch Android.
That doesn't mean we'll see no Windows Phone action. Manufacturers will be exploring Windows Phone, and I would expect to see some 'short run' handsets with mid-range technology released this year, if for nothing else than to gain competency in an Android alternative and offer them some leverage against Google.
