Three thoughts about Chris Christie's entry into the Republican presidential field.
1) The George Constanza Candidacy. Based on the outcomes of presidential elections over the past couple of decades, I have a theory as to how Americans choose their leader. Actually, it's the same guildeline once employed by George Costanza of Seinfeld fame: "the opposite". Figure it thus: in 1992, Americans looked at a sitting president who was a decorated naval aviator, married to a woman you'd be hard-pressed not to like. Any they chose: Bill Clinton, with a complicated draft record and married to . . . well, never mind. In 2000, Americans replaced Bill Clinton with the more-grounded George W. Bush. And eight years after that, Bush and his clunky speaking style gave way to the silver-tongued Barack Obama. For my theory to carry on, the winner in 2016 would be most things Obama's not. And in this Republican field, that would be Christie: blunt, not svelte, and a brawler who doesn't want to woo the world with sweet words and gentle talk.
2) Foliage. Another concept: running for president is a lot like watching the leaves change: there's a peak season and timing is everything. On this note, Christie's timing would seem unfortunate. To he extent he "peaked", it would be right after November 2013 and his landslide re-election victory. Since then. Christie has struggled as far as the news cycle goes. There's that pesky bridge scandal and, as we see with today's announcement, an in-state persona that's more complicated to explain today ( a tough budget he just signed and record-low approval numbers) than it would have to been to convey had Christie sought the presidency four years ago (at that time, a record defined by dealing with pension and education reform, taking on public-employee unions).
3) Gubernatorial Help. Still, Christie had a good 2014 in at least one regard: he was chair of the Republican Governors' Association at a time when GOP candidates did particularly well. Christie was dealt a tough hand: trying to get nine Republican governors re-elected in states Obama twice carried. He won eight of those races, losing only in Pennsylvania (which was something of a anomaly as it booted its GOP governor while electing more Republicans to the state legislature). In theory, lots of recently-elected governors owe Christie. In reality, they're sitting on the fence with more choices of current and past colleagues than they'd probably like.
To the extent Christie goes anywhere presidentially, he'll need to defy expectations in New Hampshire.
Meanwhile, we'll see if those connections he made on the campaign trial in 2014 -- campaigning for governors, making friends with party activists and collecting donors' phone numbers -- reap any rewards.
You can find me on Twitter: @hooverwhalen
