The shot that
It's almost a David and Goliath story – except that Chipotle is a publicly traded company with a market cap over $13B. That's hardly the same league as
As our focus sharpens around diet and health – companies that display real authenticity on a politically charged topic like diet and chronic disease stand to benefit – big time.
Assuming for a moment that Chipotle and Credit Suisse are the twin David's, the twin Goliath's are the highly mechanized, saturated and processed industries of Food and Agriculture. Chipotle's shot is a relatively short (3.23 minute) video called "The Scarecrow" which was released on YouTube (here). In the 6 days since its release, the video has gone viral and attracted over 4.7 million views. It won't likely surpass YouTube's all-time champ "Gangnam Style" (nearing 2 billion views), but that's an entirely separate storyline. The point is – the message (or self-published ad) is compelling and it's attracting social media attention – at scale.
Beyond that, and given Chipotle's committed history to a carefully engineered (and prepared) menu, there's an aura of authenticity that also doesn't happen very often in the advertising world – in any form. Fellow Forbes colleague David Vinjamuri wrote a great piece on the marketing/branding elements of the video (here). That's probably the best overall angle to the story – except that it's not the only angle.
The Credit Suisse shot is a report that was designed to explore the relationship between global sugar consumption and the rising epidemic of Type II diabetes, metabolic syndrome, obesity and "related nutritional issues." A key finding in the report was this:
To provide new insights on the debate, the report includes a proprietary survey of general practitioners in the US, Europe and Asia. The survey found that 90 percent of the doctors surveyed believed that the sharp growth in type II diabetes and the current obesity epidemic are strongly linked to excess sugar consumption. "Although causality is difficult to prove in this area, with such a high percentage of doctors in our proprietary survey confident of this strong link, we cannot ignore the significance and the implications for society and our economy," says Stefano Natella, Co-Head of Securities Research & Analytics and an author of the study. Sugar: Consumption at a Crossroads – Report by Credit Suisse (here)
On page 20 of the 23 page report was this bombshell:
So 30%–40% of healthcare expenditures in the USA go to help address issues that are closely tied to the excess consumption of sugar. Diabetes is the fastest growing: 15% of US adults or close to 40 million are expected to be diabetic by 2020 compared to 12% now. Sugar: Consumption at a Crossroads – Report by Credit Suisse
Dr. Dean Ornish, noted cardiologist and author of several books on cardiovascular illness, arrived at a near identical conclusion last year.
Type 2 diabetes and pre-diabetes will affect half of Americans in the next eight years at a projected cost of $3.3 trillion. Dr. Dean Ornish (here)
Of course much of the dialog and debate to this point has been aimed squarely at each of us as consumers. The logic behind the consumer aim is often designed to quickly assign both blame and responsibility. The easy argument is to just put down the Thirsty-Two-Ouncer. But that's both a naïve and simplistic view of a really complex relationship between overall diet and chronic disease.
Through their own evolutions, the food and agricultural industries have as much of an economic stranglehold on D.C. as healthcare. If it does nothing else, the Chipotle video highlights the economic complicity of both industries. The mounting evidence between highly processed foods, sugar, agriculture and healthcare does raise a list of provocative questions that we'll no doubt be debating for years to come.
* Why are healthy salads at most fast-food chains often 2-3 times the cost of cheeseburgers and fries?
* Is insulin resistance the cause of obesity or is obesity the cause of insulin resistance – and shouldn't we know that? (Are We Fighting The Wrong Battle In The Obesity War?)
* How is it that in a country ranked #1 in obesity – there are about 50 million Americans living with "food insecurity?" (Challenging Myself To Experience Hunger by Ron Shaich – Founder, Chairman and CEO of Panera Bread)
* How much of obesity (and by extension our National Healthcare Expenditure) is directly attributable to our enormous appetite for super-sized sugary soda?
Will Chipotle have any real or lasting effect on these highly mechanized and multi-trillion-dollar industries? Probably not. Will it have an effect on the discourse and dialog around how we manufacture food and its effect on diet and chronic disease? Hopefully.
The larger question that Chipotle (and Credit Suisse) seem to be targeting is how can we make a dent on the demand side of healthcare without the direct support of both the food and agricultural industries? Turns out Dr. Ornish was also right when he said:
"The cheapest calories to buy are the most expensive on our health."
It may not be the knock-out punch, but the report from Credit Suisse in combination with Chipotle's clever video packs a real one-two punch.
