By Alaric DeArment; Additional reporting by Hanan Kamal and Natalie Morrison
Of all the foreign policy events under the Obama administration, two of the most significant could be reestablishment of diplomatic relations with Cuba and reaching a nuclear deal with Iran.
Beyond geopolitical implications, both developments should have U.S. drug makers paying attention as well.
So given that most talk of emerging markets focuses on big countries like Brazil, Russia, India and China, what’s the big deal about Cuba and Iran, especially for pharmaceutical companies?
After all, Iran’s 80.8 million citizens nearly equal Turkey’s population, yet Turkey’s nominal GDP is more than double Iran’s $402.7 billion, according to the 2014 CIA World Factbook. Cuba’s $77.2 billion nominal GDP is lower than the $94.9 billion market cap of
Yet, as Payam Dindoust, president of Toronto-based Risopharma Tech, said, the 10-15 percent of Iran’s population able to afford expensive drugs represents a market potentially larger than the United Arab Emirates and more than one-third of Saudi Arabia’s. Iran’s large middle class and strategic location will likewise make it competitive for foreign direct investment if sanctions are lifted, University of Kansas law professor Raj Bhala said, while others noted its large pharmaceutical manufacturing base. And, other experts said, in contrast with the popular image in the U.S. of Iranians marching the streets shouting “Death to America,” many Iranians enthusiastically support U.S. brands, including doctors who prefer our drug products and use U.S. medical textbooks. Nevertheless, poor intellectual property enforcement and updating IP laws to international standards will be challenges, said Alaa Assem, CEO of Dubai-based contract research organization Clinart.
Meanwhile, Cuba’s potential lies in its drug R&D and manufacturing infrastructure, whose robustness stands in contrast to the country’s economic decay. Cuba had a meningococcal disease vaccine more than two decades before us and went on to develop medicines for lung cancer, hepatitis B, diabetic foot ulcers and other ailments that remain unavailable here due to the embargo. Its achievements have gotten attention from the U.S. already: On May 15, I reported that the Buffalo, N.Y., Roswell Park Cancer Institute was seeking business partners around a planned U.S. clinical trial of the Cuban lung cancer vaccine Cimavax. But a drawback companies may find is a preference by the Cuban government for joint ventures, several experts said, while Abivax CEO Hartmut Ehrlich said Cuban companies prefer to maintain full rights to products for Cuba and its allies such as Venezuela.
Everything depends on whether negotiations around Iran’s nuclear capabilities lead to relief of sanctions and, barring a lift of the embargo against Cuba, whether the Obama administration uses executive orders to liberalize business with the island. There’s plenty of pressure to make sure neither happens, from allies in the Middle East, U.S. politicians hostile to the Castro regime and others. But one thing is certain: Drug companies had better keep an eye on both countries.
Alaric DeArment is the hematological cancer reporter at BioPharm Insight based in New York. He can be reached at adearment@biopharminsight.com. Natalie Morrison covers allergies, men's and women's health as well as overall business development and the services sector for BioPharm Insight based in London. She can be reached at nmorrison@eu.biopharminsight.com. Hanan Kamal is the editor for North America at BioPharm Insight based in New York. She can be reached at hkamal@biopharminsight.com.
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