We have all grown up to believe the Emerson quote "Build a better mousetrap and the world will beat a path to your door." If we are intrinsically better at something, we will find success in that area. But what if that is just not true? What if our success has little to do with being the best? Plenty of entrepreneurs, innovators, and artists have wondered "why did success come to them, when mine is so much better?"
It turns out that there is scientific evidence that your success has little to do with your brilliance and more to do with chance than we care to realize. Social influence plays a dominating role in what rises to the top and what is lost in the bog of the undiscovered. In wondering why a book series like Harry Potter was so successful after being turned down by eight successive publishers, the research team of Salganik, Dodds, and Watts (Princeton, Columbia, and
The Study
Salganik and team knew that if you asked why American Idol was successful, for instance, the argument would devolve into two camps: success was a result of brilliance, the other caused by popularity. But what if you could create an artificial scenario that would prove that social influence actually determined success.
Working with a pool of almost 28,000 participants over 3 years, the team created several online sites (called worlds - world 1, world 2, etc.) where they displayed 48 songs by unknown artists. The songs were exactly the same across all of the sites, but people were randomly selected to participate in only one site. The participants were asked to rank and download the songs they liked and the results were displayed to the other participants in their site only - they had no insight as to what was happening in other sites ("what happens in world 1 stays in world 1").
The study was to answer "If a song did well across all groups, then success is intrinsic to the brilliance of the song." However, if the song did well in one group, but not others, it could be attributed to social influence - once a song became popular, the herd mentality took over and was voted up because of social influence. Our peers create value.
Care to guess what happened?
The Result
Scientifically speaking, success is random. In the study, the data proves once a song gained momentum in that world, it became popular. Songs that did well in one group did not necessarily do well in others. However, the global tastes of people are so diverse that you could run these studies forever and never come up with a total universal truth, but there are several useful outcomes.
- Inequality and unpredictability certainly exists in the marketplace. What is successful is heavily influenced by chance and the better mousetrap may not always win. Additionally, you cannot reasonably predict future success based on prior success. How often have we seen popular entertainment try to cash in by trying to template success - only to fail miserably
- Cumulative Advantage. The rich get richer. Once you have a level success, it is easier to cash-in on your success. We like to believe that someone is just innately talented - and they may well be - but much of their success can be attributed to our perception of them. We perceive greatness; therefore, they are great.
- Social Influence. We are a product of peer pressure. This is not inherently a bad thing and doesn't necessarily have the negative connotation it did in . . . say High School (or as my mom used to say "If all of your friends jumped off a bridge would you do it too?" I have the hospital records to say "Yes, I would.") We are bombarded with a wealth of decisions across a variety of media. Using social rankings to help us decide is useful to save time of investigation we may not have. Knowing a show is popular on TV may get us to watch it, or at least try it.
- Appeal is more universal, but it is not success. The study showed that across the worlds certain songs were popular - that they had a universal appeal. But that appeal may not necessarily translate into success. Many marketers crash against the rocks of this false siren, by thinking they know what appeals to a market and, therefore, they are assured success. Not so.
We See This Every Day
We love our lists. NYT, Billboard or iTunes top lists are widely consulted. We know movie grosses by Sunday afternoon on which movies won at the box office. These lists are a sword that cuts both ways. They are useful in helping us cull through the mass of possibilities and make a determination on which we will pick (if you think you don't do this - that you are above it all - how often have you not seen a movie you wanted to see because it did not do well opening weekend or because a critic panned it? Did you like Pharrell's hit Happy when it was release almost a year ago OR after it was nominated for an Oscar and then went to #1 on iTunes?)
The downside of these lists is that we assume that the herd is correct. But success is just the by-product of a wave of social sentiment, and not because something is inherently better than another. What the herd likes may not be what you like or, more important, what you need.
We see mediocrity rise to the top and stay there . . . all the time. To avoid the slew of hate mail and threats to coat me in honey and put me in a pit of fire ants, I won't name any particular names or artists. But not everything that comes from these "hit makers" drips of successful gold.
Can You Predict?
Earlier, the discussion of appeal came into the research. Entrepreneurs, marketers, executives, data scientist, etc. all want to predict success. Great moments in failure start with phrases like:
- If it worked there, it will work here.
- I have done this x times before. Trust me, this will work.
- I know what the people want.
- This is the best thing on the market today - how can it fail?
The research states that there is an inherent unpredictability in the market - therefore, you cannot predict success. But, fear not, serial entrepreneur! There are some ways to use this insight to your advantage.
How To Use This New Found Insight
There are several useful lessons from this research. While there is no silver bullet for success, there are a few insights that will help you along your way:
- Take heart. It isn't you. You were great. It is just that I -Success - have decided to see other people. You may spend a lot of wasted energy wondering what you did wrong that your perfect mousetrap did not kill in the market. Take heart - it may well have had nothing to do with you.
- Science is against the template. Statistically, you are just as likely to guess as to infer that something that was successful here will be able to replicate over there, or at this time. We like to think we are smarter than that - that we know better. But we don't. Success may be more likely because of appeal, but it is not a predictor of success. Big difference.
- Portfolio: Test, Sample, Repeat. While success is allusive and random, developing a "portfolio" approach of several approaches to the market, or across several products can be your template for success. Record companies have known this for years. For every Beiber that comes out from nowhere, there are hundreds of "bankable" artists who never make it. But these companies make money by trying and testing across different artists in different ways. This means trying a lot of different approaches, over time, to find success.
Last Words On Success
Success is random and fickle. When you are struggling to find it, or when you have it firmly in your grasp, just know that there is a little old lady in Topeka or some random teenager in Toledo who may just tip the scales for . . . or against you. Good luck!
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Todd's success can be attributed to him personally knowing that random teenager in Toledo. Tip the scales for him by following him on Twitter @toddmwilms and on his LinkedIn profile.
