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Google Trends Market Prediction: Right Again. Correct On 80% Of The Calls

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This was another winning week for the Google Trends Market Predictor.  I've been reporting these weekly calls before the open on Monday, however this week real life intervened, so it it coming out now, though based on the same Sunday night data collection.

Rather than waiting any longer,  I will stay in compliance with the Predictor's First Commandment:  Whatever you predict, predict it before it happens. Since the predictions are for a week at a time, this post uses the usual "debt" search trend collected on Sunday evening, just reported here a bit late.

Recall that last week's prediction was for the market (measured by the DJIA) to be up.   It wasn't the strongest signal we've seen, but it was correct again, bringing the running tally for the basic Trends Predictor to 80%.

The DJIA closed the prior week on 5/31 at 15,115, and rose by Friday 6/7 to 15,248, picking up 133 points, nearly 0.9%.  Another good call for the Google Trends Predictor, bring the GTP's batting average to a respectable .800.

What does the crystal ball say for next week (i.e., this week starting Monday).  Look below:

Debt searches down, so the prediction is for the DJIA to be up again.

All the usual caveats apply, there are many ways to fool yourself, and this may be one of them. The track record is good, but short. This is a pretty basic version of the GTP. (Any Python wizard volunteers out there?) It is based on the Trends  metric - "how often do people search for "debt"?" See the article in the sidebar for the gruesome details.

Watch this space to see how it all turns out. With the DJIA down to 14995 for the week it'll be a hard pull for the GTI (Google Trends Indicator).