So Hillary passed on doing one more presidential debate with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.
It would have been in California – most likely in San Francisco, at some point before the Golden State’s June 7 primary.
And, so far, the reviews haven’t been good.
Sanders called the snub “insulting to the people of California” (personally, as a California resident for the past 22 years, I find the high taxes and cost of living tougher on the psyche).
Conservative media outlets trotted out this Clinton line from back in 2008: “Honestly, I just believe this is the most important job in the world. It’s the toughest job in the world. You should be willing to campaign for every vote. You should be willing to debate anytime, anywhere.”
By saying no to one more debate, Clinton broke an earlier promise to have one last go with Sanders. The Democrats’ nine presidential debates dating back to last October (the most recent encounter: April 14 in Brooklyn) is pathetic compared to the 22 times Republicans have debated in this primary season – or, for that matter, the 25 times that Clinton and Barack Obama jousted in 2008.
That said, I’m going to do something I ordinarily don’t – and that would be giving Clinton credit for making the right choice.
For these reasons:
She’s Ahead, Why Mess With That. This week, Clinton began her first full-bore campaign swing through California. It’s a sign of a campaign that isn’t taking matters lightly, even though she’s well ahead of Sanders in the all-important delegate count.
In California, Clinton leads Sanders by nearly 10 points, according to the Real Clear Politics Average. An ABC7-Southern California News Group poll released earlier today had her up by 18. The Hoover Institution will have a Golden State Poll out before the primary; we’ll see if the lead holds.
If you’re the Sanders campaign and hoping to pull off an upset, two bolts of lightning have to strike:
(1) a humungous turnout among under-30 voters (that’s tricky, given that California votes on the first Tuesday in June and many college students are on the move);
(2) Clinton making a very large unforced error that doesn’t go unnoticed and un-televised – i.e., a debate gaffe.
By saying no to one last appearance with Sanders, Hillary takes away one big chance to mess up.
She Avoids A Grilling. Sanders proved to be an odd debater – he wouldn’t go after Clinton on her email controversy, but had no problem questioning her honoraria ethics.
The problem for Hillary with a California debate wasn’t so much her opponent as it would have been the event’s co-sponsor: the Fox News Channel (in tandem with The San Francisco Chronicle).
Imagine how a California-based Democratic debate would look through the FNC lens: the candidates’ positions on illegal immigration, Kate Steinle and sanctuary cities; the benefits of Pacific Rim trade; the Golden State being years ahead of the Obama Administration on transgender bathroom policy; higher taxes, marijuana legalization, capital punishment and capping CEO pay (all initiative items expected to be on California’s November initiative slate).
In short: having to awkwardly defend the Left Coast worldview knowing that purple-state voters are among the debate’s viewership.
Add to that some other unpleasant topics that Clinton otherwise avoids by avoiding appearances on FNC: the shady finances of her good friend, Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, her husband making $5 million via 20 days of speechmaking; Huma and the Weiner documentary.
Clinton will face these questions at some point – but why now, before the final primary push?
Keeping The Focus On Trump. Yes, Clinton needs to take care of her Democratic base. According to Washington Post/ABC polling of Democrats and Democratic leaners, she has a 72% favorable among Democrats. However, she also received a 37% unfavorable from under-30 voters.
Once primary season is over and Clinton strikes whatever truce can be had with Sanders, perhaps she’ll chip away at the latter number.
As opposed to currently getting pounded on a daily basis by Trump.
The Clinton strategy: match him on the vitriol front; at the same time, try to burst Trump’s populist bubble.
Again, it’s sound politics – even if it leaves her vulnerable (given the Clintons record as fast-buck artists, does she really want to attack Trump as greedy?). However, it’s hard to stay on that message if on a debate stage with Sanders.
Better to duck the debate – even if it leaves Bernie feeling that much more berned.
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