The Kentucky Derby's jam-packed, talented field this year is offering the discerning player three ways of betting. The simplest way, though not necessarily the most profitable, is to go to the window, digital or real, and put your money down on whomever you please. The second – arguably more profitable – way is to take a leisurely hour to read up on the legendary mathemetician/philosopher Edward Lorenz's groundbreaking work on Chaos Theory, and then go put your money down. The third and best way, immodest as it may sound, is to read this, then go put your money down.
Because at 6:40 pm post time at Churchill Downs, we're going to get Lorenz's Chaos Theory performed live, over a mile-and-a-quarter, by this racing season's 20 most agile and powerful young thoroughbreds. Nota bene: The morning line on each athlete listed below, will, of course, heat up or cool off with the tote as post time approaches.
Kentucky Derby 2016: (Position, Horse, Odds)
1. Trojan Nation 50-1
2. Suddenbreakingnews 20-1
3. Creator 10-1
4. Mo Tom 20-1
5. Gun Runner 10-1
6. My Man Sam 20-1
7. Oscar Nominated 50-1
8. Lani 30-1
9. Destin 15-1
10. Whitmore 20-1
11. Exaggerator 8-1
12. Tom's Ready 30-1
13. Nyquist 3-1
14. Mohaymen 10-1
15. Outwork 15-1
16. Shagaf 20-1
17. Mor Spirit 12-1
18. Majesto 30-1
19. Brody's Cause 12-1
20. Danzing Candy 15-1
To help us parse the math of the madness, the Bluegrass Wise Man ™, a Kentucky born-and-bred horseman and stable owner of our acquaintance, has been been applying his own special equine version of Chaos Theory to the field, with excellent results. Here's the Wise Man's breakdown of the post-position draw and the latest odds.
We already know that O'Neill is (somewhat) unhappy with his draw for Nyquist, but how will the post positions affect the kinds of races that he and the many other favorites have to run?
Bluegrass Wise Man ™: Nyquist got a fine post. He is in the 13 which is actually the same post he drew in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile, which he won. The other significance of the 13 to trainers is that it's the next to last post to the outside in the main gate. The auxiliary gate holds Nos. 15 to 20. There is a little space between the two gates. That means Nyquist may not get a crush of horses coming down on him from the outside like he would if he were further to the inside. O’Neill wants to know if Danzing Candy from the 20 slot, a speed horse, is going to go or take back. It could be difficult to hit the gas from the 20 and try to get position early, as you may have burned too much fuel too early. It may make better sense for Danzing Candy to take back and come with his run. If he does that, Nyquist could simply inherit the early lead. Gun Runner drew post 5, a good spot. Mohaymen is in the 14 slot. He should like that spot just as Nyquist will like his. Exaggerator is fine from the 11. He will come from way back anyway. Mor Spirit good is from the 17. To some degree he has the same choice to make as Danzing Candy. He has some speed. Do you use a little speed or do you 'take back' and then get into the traffic?
Let's think like we're big players sitting out in Vegas getting some lap dances and eating some steaks at 3 a.m. while picking our way through the odds. The Vegas boys don't 'like' anybody. They 'dislike' everybody that gets in the way of their payday. We'll call this Fear Analysis (tm)—in other words, the process of turning the race on its head and looking at the 'spoilers' who are going to wreck your play. In descending order, who are gonna be the top five worst -- or most dangerous -- spoilers?
Wise Man: Okay, for starters, Suddenbreakingnews—20-1 on the morning line. Won the first of the three Arkansas prep races, the Southwest. Was second to Creator in the Arkansas Derby. Breaks from the inside and will come running late.
Secondly, Outwork - 15-1 – trained by Todd Pletcher. He's getting a lot of buzz right now because he has looked so great in the mornings while training at Churchill. Todd has only had one Derby winner from 48 starters, but has run multiple horses in Derby most years. Outwork won Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. That race has not produced a Derby winner in years. His jockey, Johnny Velazquez, is one of the best.
Thirdly, My Man Sam, at 20-1, trained by Chad Brown. He was flying at the end of the Bluegrass at Keeneland. Broke from the 13 post and saved no ground. He is an improving horse from a top-five trainer.
The fourth spoiler is Lani, at 30-1. This is the Japanese horse that no trainer wants to be next to in the gate. He was bred in the Bluegrass and is a son of the hottest sire in the United States, Tapit. He started his career in Japan and won the Dubai World Cup in his last start. He has trained erratically at the Downs. Would not be surprised if a son of Tapit wins the Derby – don't forget, Creator and Mohaymen are in there – but I'd be shocked if this is the one.
The ultimate spoiler is Oscar Nominated, at 50-1, trained by Mike Maker. He won the Spiral last out on Polytrack at Turfway, but has not run on dirt. All prior starts on turf as his sire, Kitten’s Joy, is the most prolific U.S. turf sire presently. Turf form translates to Polytrack often as it did for him in the Spiral. Should he win, the winner’s circle presentation with the Ramseys will be classic. A Kentucky family that loves their racing at every level. While Mr. Ramsey’s dream is to win a race at Royal Ascot and collect a trophy from the Queen, we here in Kentucky love it when he wins a race on a muddy track and then leads his horse into the winner’s circle barefooted. The Ramseys LOVE the game.
Give us a couple of examples of what we might call a 'good' trifecta or maybe a creative exacta pick, stepping around some of those spoilers.
Wise Man: The creative exacta I may bet is four or five horses on top with “all” underneath. 5 horses x 19 horses x $1 = $95 wager but could pay big if a bomb is second.
After the draw, Bob Baffert, who knows a thing or two about horses, said: 'All the speed is on the outside. There will probably be two different races going on.' We know what he meant, and it sounds like a train wreck. Break it down for us.
Wise Man: Bob is saying that his horse Mor Spirit and Danzing Candy are the true speed horses in the race. If they gun it from the gate and the first three on the inside, and others, take back, it may look like some are going forward and some are going slowly backwards. Could be strung out going to the first turn if there is a lot of speed and the closers lope along.
We don't often think about the tough-mindedness of a horse and jockey but another element of this year's fine Chaos is that the unpredictable quality of 'heart' is going to come into play. Which horse has the ability to bounce back from a bad box-in on the backstretch? Who's got the most grit?
Wise Man: I think Creator has a lot of grit, and have thought that for a while now. He showed that in the Arkansas Derby. Nyquist has grit, because, face it, undefeated is undefeated. He has been eyeballed and always responds. Exaggerator will come running and always does. Brody’s Cause will also show some toughness. All of these guys may have a tough trip. Some are going to get stopped. If they get stopped, can they gather their momentum back up and make a run. But that is a very, very hard thing to do.
You liking Chaos Theory these days?
Wise Man: In racing, gotta love Chaos Theory. It's all there is.
See the Saturday morning line odds for the Kentucky Derby and last-minute tips.
