It's Now Or Never For Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles, Study Says

It seems like hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have been on the horizon forever, but if they're going to penetrate the mass market, now is the time, says a new study from IHS Automotive.

Only three fuel cell cars are available for consumers to purchase or lease today -- the Toyota Mirai, Hyundai ix35/Tucson and the Honda Clarity -- and they're only available in select markets (like California in the U.S.) But over the next decade or so, the number of available fuel cell models will jump to 17, IHS says. Most of these will be in Japan and Korea initially, but by 2021, European carmakers will be the leaders as government emissions targets get tougher.

By 2027, IHS says fuel cell vehicle production will reach 70,000 units, but that will still represent less than 0.1 percent of all vehicles produced.

The study's author, Ben Scott, a senior analyst with IHS Automotive, said fuel cells have a window of opportunity to get a foot hold in the market right now, while they have some advantages over battery electric vehicles. Fuel cells have longer driving range, for example, and shorter fueling times. “Refueling habits with a fuel cell vehicle will be very similar to that of a conventional car. This will definitely help with customer acceptance,” Scott said.

Hydrogen refueling infrastructure remains a hurdle, however. Today there are approximately 100 public hydrogen refueling stations in the world (16 in the U.S.) More stations are coming in early adopter markets, but they are expensive -- more than $3 million, compared to relatively inexpensive EV charging stations.

Hydrogen is readily available for industrial uses, but comes mostly from fossil fuels like natural gas and coal. Hydrogen can be produced from renewable sources, but it's much more expensive. “There is no market today to justify that premium and that market needs to be created to encourage investment in upstream hydrogen production capability. There is currently a trade-off between hydrogen carbon footprint and cost,” Scott said.

Meanwhile, battery technology is improving each year, as costs per kilowatt-hour decrease and energy density increases. If fuel cells don't move past the early adopter phase in the next 20-25 years, they probably won't amount to anything more than niche status, says IHS. “This could be a ‘now or never’ situation for FCEVs in mass market mobility,” said Scott.