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On Eve Of Election, Bookmakers Bet On An Obama Victory

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With one day to go before the election, we’re becoming super- saturated with poll data predicting a squeaker in the race for president. Meanwhile, bookmakers and gamblers are increasingly certain Obama will hang on to the White House.

With more than $13 million wagered on who will win the race for president, UK bookmaker William hill has listed odds of 1-5 for Obama and 7-2 for Romney. Ladbrokes, the other big UK bookmakers has the same line. Vegas bookmakers are prohibited by law from taking wagers on political races.

Over at Intrade, where you can buy or sell real-money contracts predicting the outcome of the race, volume is spiking, with more than 150,000 contracts in the last day or so, making this bet—at least in theory--a very useful prediction tool. Intrade bettors are giving Obama a 67% chance of winning reelection and retaining the White House, with Romney having a 33% chance of winning.  (Jeff Sommer at New York Times had a smart story on Intrade's predictive abilities over the weekend.)

In 12 key battleground states, Intrade bettors have Obama as the walkaway favorite in 8 of them. Right now, Intrade calls Colorado a tossup, and Virginia is Obama’s by 55%-45%. Romney is predicted as a having a lock on Florida, with a 74% chance of winning there and North Carolina with an 80% chance.

In every other state Obama is far ahead according to Intrade, expected to take Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Minnestota. In Ohio, seen as a must-win for either candidate, Obama is seen to have a 70% chance of taking the state.

But take the battleground numbers with a huge chunk of salt. There’s hardly any volume at all on any of those contracts, making them specious predictors at best.