Just as European unity was straining at the seams – weakened by a wave of migration unseen since the second world war – the terrorist attacks in Paris could presage an unraveling of the very fabric of Europe.
One of the Europe’s most noteworthy achievements -- the free movement of goods and people -- is under its gravest threat since the Common Market came into being in 1958, after revelations that suspected perpetrators of the Paris atrocities may have moved undetected between France, Belgium and Syria.
Even before taking office, Poland’s new minister for Europe, Konrad Szymanski, raised eyebrows by calling for a review of immigration policies in the immediate aftermath of the Parisian atrocities, at a time when other leaders were still sending condolences and messages of solidarity to the French government.
Eastern members of the European Union have been amongst the most forceful opponents of immigration, in both word and deed. Hungarian
Orban’s rhetoric – regarded as small-minded and provincial by many leaders just a few months ago -- has become more mainstream since events in Paris.
Even Sweden – long Europe’s poster child for enlightened immigration policy – has pulled down the shutters. Earlier in the week, Prime Minister Stefan Löfven told reporters of his intention to “drastically reduce” the number of asylum seekers entering his country, an announcement that moved his deputy to tears. Sweden, with its population of just 10 million, expects nearly 200,000 asylum seekers to hit its shores this year.
But perhaps nowhere is immigration a hotter issue than in the UK, despite Britain’s opt-out of any significant role in solving the refugee crisis. Prime Minister David Cameron has pledged to accept some 20,000 refugees over the next five years. Germany, with a population of 81 million, just one-quarter larger than Britain’s, is expected to absorb as many as one million this year alone. According to data released this week, Britain had accepted a mere 36 souls under the Syrian refugee scheme between July and September.
In Britain, it’s legal immigration that has incensed voters. And data released this week give further ammunition to those who want to restrict visitors to Britain, even at the expense of leaving the European Union.
Net migration to the UK rose to an all-time high of 336,000 in the year to June, according to Britain’s Office for National Statistics, with two-thirds coming from the European Union, which permits free movement of people amongst member states. The lawful nature of such migration presents a headache for Cameron, who has been haunted by his 2010 pledge to cut the number of migrants to “tens of thousands.”
Instead, he has set his sights on reducing access to social benefits for jobless migrants. But that contravenes EU accords on the free movement of people, and cannot be accomplished without reopening those treaties. With EU leaders occupied with other pressing matters, there is little will to help Cameron solve a problem that many regard as one of Britain’s own making. It’s questionable whether Britain’s social system is much of a draw anyway. Workers from EU member states accounted for nearly three-quarters of all British employment growth in the year to June.
No matter. Tabloid headlines screaming of waves of migrants – legal or illegal – will be fodder for anti-EU campaigners. The question of a UK departure from the EU, or Brexit, will be put to voters in a referendum before the end of 2017. But the EU may look very different in a year’s time than it does today.
Since the sovereign debt crisis shocked Europe from 2010, the stability of the single currency was feared as the greatest risk to European unity. Instead, it’s a wave of migration, and fears of insecurity heightened by the atrocities in Paris, that could stop the European integration project in its tracks.
