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Don't Discount Bernie Sanders In Tonight's Democratic Debate

This article is more than 8 years old.

Today, Donald Trump made his foray into predictive analytics by  predicting that the Democratic Debate tomorrow night will be "boring."  He may have a point.  Unlike the fracas that is the Republican Primary battle, the Democratic primary has hardly gained attention, and probably for good reason.  For starters, the primary nomination, as of right now, only has five major competitors; three of those are currently polling (in an aggregate of polls) at less than 1%  support each.  The dominant candidate, by far, is Hilary Clinton, with a commanding national lead:  PredictIt, an online marketplace for political futures, shows that investors believe Clinton has a 60% chance of winning the nomination--a dominant position that she has held since (practically) day one.

So why tune into the debate?

As with the Republican Primary, the Democratic competition has some undertones of drama that are just bubbling to the surface.  Mrs. Clinton's main challenger, Bernie Sanders, is putting up quite a fight and has gained some serious momentum over the last several months.  More importantly, unlike what many political pundits believe, polls evidence suggests that Mr. Sanders may actually be main-stream enough to give Mrs. Clinton a run for her money.  Complicating this is the mysterious Mr. Biden, the current Vice President, who has some impressive support despite no official plans to run for president.  A surprise cameo by Joe Biden may make Mr. Trump eat his words--there's certainly some drama in the Democratic Primary.

The Back-drop: Clinton's Waning Support

The big story coming into the debate is the decline in Hilary Clinton's polling numbers over time--and the uptick in Senator Sanders' support.  Most of this is due to Mr. Sanders' very professionally run campaign, which has played into his charismatic style and very impressive use of social media to galvanize support:  Sanders' rallies have frequently surpassed tens of thousands of people in size.  Still, the tendency among many media pundits is to dismiss Bernie Sanders' campaign as "fringe" or appealing to individuals who are "unlikely to vote"--similar to Howard Dean in 2004.

In many polls, pollsters use an algorithm to predict and survey "likely voters," which makes the latter criticism somewhat dubious immediately:  it is a rather unwarranted criticism to say that (anecdotally) Mr. Sander's growing support comes from unlikely voters, against the obvious consensus from polling agencies whose sole purpose is to evaluate these outcomes.  Regarding the former criticism, there is no doubt some truth, but to dismiss Sanders as an outsider with no shot to win is also a gross dismissal.   Much of Sanders' "fringe" feel is due to his self-proclaimed stance as a "socialist," a hitherto very negative assertion in American politics.  Given the rapid and rather extreme polarization of today's political climate, this assertion--and Mr. Sander's left wing views--are no longer truly far from mainstream.  In a recent CBS News/NY Times Poll, the same percentage of Democratic Voters with an opinion--66%--felt that both Clinton and Sanders' views were "Just Right" instead of "Too Liberal" or "Too Conservative."

Clinton's Big Problem: Favorability 

Much of Clinton's waning support is driven by her role in a recent e-mail scandal dating back to her tenure as Secretary of State.  This has negatively impacted her perception among voters as being "honest" or "trustworthy."  How bad is the situation?  Mrs. Clinton's net honesty/trustworthy score among voters is an abysmal -30%--this means that a whole 30% more people believe that Clinton is not honest or trustworthy than the opposite.  This also has the appearance of a serious issue: going back to the 2000 election, no candidate who eventually wins the nomination has had a score less than zero (that is, for every other candidate, there were more likely voters who perceived that person as honest/trustworthy than not honest or not trustworthy).

The bigger issue for Ms. Clinton is also that she is very well known but not very well liked (a low favorability awareness ratio).  This means that Ms. Clinton must change perceptions of voters in order to protect her lead.  The same is not true for Mr. Sanders, her main competitor, who has achieved his success by being well liked (to almost a fervent degree).  Assuming Mr. Sanders can continue to maintain his net favorability ratings, increases in awareness (debates, for example, are perfect opportunities to develop higher awareness) can lead to dramatic increases in support.

What to Expect in the Debate

The strategy is clear: for Mrs. Clinton, she must address her scandals and use this debate as a sounding board to change perceptions of her as a leader and as a person.  Look for her to emphasize positions to a lesser extent than qualities she espouses that might resonate with voters.  For Mr. Sander's, the opposite is true: many likely voters will be hearing him for the first time.  He must continue to address voters through an emphasis on his positions, specifically to show that they are mainstream enough for the general population.

And, of course, look out for Mr. Biden--the X factor that could make this debate one that even Trump might want to watch.

 

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