It’s the question Keith Williams of the National Turkey Federation gets asked every year: will there be a turkey shortage this year? Will families have to celebrate Thanksgiving without their main dish? Do families have reason to worry since the avian flu hit Midwest turkey farmers?
“There will be plenty of turkey for Thanksgiving,” assures Williams. “The growing and marketing of turkey is handled specifically to meet the annual demand at Thanksgiving. Turkey hens – the preferred size for Thanksgiving dinner – were raised and marketed flash-frozen for quality back in March – long before HPAI [Highly pathogenic avian influenza A] struck in the upper Midwest.”
That’s not to say some Midwest farmers didn’t change their plans this year in light of the avian flu news. John Caveny, co-owner of Caveny Farm in Monticello, Illinois, has been raising Bourbon Red turkeys for 15 years. This year was the first year that he and his family decided to reduce the amount of birds to raise for Thanksgiving by two-thirds and it was due to the avian flu scare, he says.
“Bourbon Red turkeys were the turkeys of choice for Thanksgiving,” says Caveny. He points out that this was turkey used in Norman Rockwell 1942’s famous oil painting Freedom From Want, often called Thanksgiving Dinner.
Bourbon Red turkeys take about twice as long to grow – six to seven months – than a broad-breasted turkey that most families set on their tables come Thanksgiving. All of Caveny’s Bourbon Reds are also pasture-fed. Caveny and his customers prefer the flavor of the Bourbon Red to the broad-breasted turkey which, he says, are better suited for bigger production systems.
Caveny orders the turkeys right after the first of the year so when news about the avian flu broke out, he chose to minimize their risk and buy fewer. They still sold out and he feels they retained their core customers, to some degree.
Caveny also raises Katahdin sheep and grows grass, like miscanthus, to round out his business.
Kim Snyder of Faith’s Farm in Bonfield, Illinois, opted out of Bourbon Red Turkeys this year. “I have raised Bourbon Red Turkeys for Thanksgiving some years, but I did not this year. I do have my older breeding stock turkeys ranging my farm as well as a couple hundred chickens and 50 ducks - along with many pigs, cows, sheep and donkeys,”
Her thoughts on the avian flu are similar to that of any type of flu, “if a person or creature is susceptible and exposed they may contract that virus.”
She adds that viruses have a hard time attacking a healthy host with a strong immune system and that prevention practiced by small, multi-species farms spares us of the significant illness and losses experienced by large, single-species confinement operations.
“Prevention, for me, is the best medicine,” she says. “All my livestock is fed organic non-GMO feed with adequate vitamins and minerals, fresh or dried greens, only grass if they are herbivores, are never weaned from their mother, are born/hatched and raised here within their herds/flocks, have low stocking rates, are provided with well-ventilated and free-access shelters, unlimited fresh air and sunshine and stress-free lives. I have had great success - and maybe a little luck - but my livestock does not get sick.”
Snyder has not had any issues with the avian flu.
According to Williams, most shoppers buy for the convenience of the quality flash-frozen turkey and the USDA report on cold storage (frozen whole turkeys) shows the level of turkeys ready for Thanksgiving at pace with turkey in cold storage last year.
He admits there was a three percent loss of turkeys nationally from avian flu. “That single-digit percentage loss was confined largely to two states in the upper Midwest; significant for those growers, companies and their communities, but nationally 228 million turkeys will be produced this year. We estimate approximately 46 million turkeys are eaten at Thanksgiving."
That’s not to say everyone will eat turkey on Thanksgiving. Several families will be serving vegetarian and vegan main dishes and some restaurants are promoting their non-turkey offerings, such as Maryland Stuffed Ham (a traditional holiday dish in Maryland). For some ideas, click here. But for those who insist on having turkey on Thanksgiving, Williams says we’re in good shape.
