Last night, CNN and the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library hosted the second set of Republican presidential debates of the 2016 election cycle. While most of the coverage will focus on who did the best, the more significant takeaway from the debate is the number of candidates who will lose even more momentum.
1. Fiorina and Rubio shined; Trump seemed empty by contrast
Former
At what point do Trump supporters start to care that he doesn’t have a policy solution for anything? Asking for a friend.
— Avik Roy (@Avik) September 17, 2015
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio was eloquent and compelling on nearly every question he faced, especially on foreign policy, reminding everyone why he remains a top-tier contender. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie may not be in any of the conventional discussions of who “won” the debate, but Christie was effective and articulate.
2. Walker, Paul, Kasich, and Huckabee fell flat
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, the one-time front-runner, continued to struggle. He seemed unable to break through with anything substantive, and ended up with the least amount of airtime of the eleven people on the main stage. Walker continues to come across as someone not ready for prime time, illustrating once again the challenges of running for president without experience on national issues.
Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, and Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee did themselves few favors with weak performances that highlighted their weaknesses. It’s particularly notable in the case of Paul, who at one time was considered a top-tier candidate. Kasich cemented his standing among left-leaning observers—who don’t usually vote in Republican primaries.
3. CNN anchors asked zero questions about Obamacare and health care entitlements
The central question facing conservatives is how to bring Americas’ debt and deficit under control. And the central driver of America’s debt and deficit problem is the growth in government spending on health care: Medicare, Medicaid, and Obamacare. Furthermore, anti-Obamacare sentiment was a prime component of Republican electoral victories in 2010 and 2014. And yet, the CNN hosts asked a grand
4. Conservative anchor Hugh Hewitt was sidelined
CNN made a big show of including conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt as one of their moderators, as a way of balancing their left-leaning anchors Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. But Tapper asked the vast majority of the questions; in a three-hour debate, Hewitt probably got two or three chances to question the candidates.
5. The heavy focus on foreign policy was a good thing
To their credit, the CNN anchors spent around an hour talking about foreign policy. Jeb Bush had arguably his best moment when he finally stood up for his brother, former President George W. Bush, noting that the former President “kept us safe.” Jeb is going to be associated with his brother whether he likes it or not; he might as well speak up and defend the things W. did well.
6. The imbalance of 11 candidates in one debate and 4 in another was unwise
Future debate hosts would be better off to evenly split the large GOP field into two debates, rather than one of 11 and one of four. The “undercard” debate included four candidates who are very unlikely to be the GOP nominee. But having fewer people on the stage allowed for a much more substantive discussion. On the other hand, people like Walker, Paul, and Kasich were washed out on the much more crowded prime-time stage.
Furthermore, as I noted above, there was a significant imbalance in how much airtime each candidate received. Some of this was due to the candidates’ own passivity or energy, but some of it was a result of the questions asked by CNN anchor Jake Tapper. NPR calculated that Trump, Bush, and Fiorina led the pack with 18:47, 15:48, and 13:30 in airtime, respectively. Walker, Huckabee, and Kasich headed up the rear, with 8:29, 9:20, and 9:44 respectively.
Total speaking times from tonight’s second #GOPDebate: http://t.co/l2KI2Dw0Vz #CNNDebate pic.twitter.com/JYca6bisbE
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) September 17, 2015
7. The real field is starting to shape up
Between the shake-ups in the polls, and two debates, we now have a much better sense of who has the best chance of keeping it together while the field gets smaller. Trump, Fiorina, and Carson will continue to draw the support of those seeking a novice for president. And among elected officials, Bush, Christie, and Rubio exhibit the most strength. Expect the GOP nominee to come from the latter group.
Also on Forbes:
