Tweet This
- Don't expect governments to support innovation and implement a future for autonomous and electric cars without having a strategy in place to penalise it at the same time.
- Don't expect governments to support innovation and implement a future for autonomous and electric cars without having a strategy in place to penalise it at the same time.
When the North America CEO of BMW, Ludwig Willisch, said earlier this year, “With the introduction of every new model, there will be a plug-in hybrid version of that, too.” the automotive world sat up and took notice. Even the mighty
You see, the automotive industry, and everything that comes with it, is decaying to the point it's blindingly obvious that all these 'innovations' are simply strategies to cash in on margins before the bullet is finally bitten. What do I mean ? Let's consider the buying process and what comes with it:
- Car Design
- Fuel
- Govt Duties
- Business Taxation
- Road Infrastructure
- Insurance
Every part of the chain is being disrupted; some faster than others, others with a deeper impact.
Car Design
Hybrid cars are the ultimate expression of 'glass half full'. It's a failure by automotive manufacturers to completely commit to the research and development of an all electric future. As Elon Musk strides forward towards that horizon, other CEOs are continuing slaves to an engine first invented in 1876. And this engine faces another threat to its existence; not from advances in engine design but in just who, or what, will be driving the car of the future itself.
Driverless cars are coming. Toyota announced it is investing $50m into a partnership with MIT and Stanford University to accelerate research into artificial intelligence and robotics for a driverless future, and this week
And it's in these two obvious futures for the horseless carriage; electric engine and autonomous control, that the rest of chain becomes more and more tenuous, being rooted to the past.
Fuel
What is the point of fossil fuels in an autonomous future ? This is the toughest link in the chain to break simply because of the stranglehold the oil barons have over the industry. But their grip is weakening. In an all electric future there will be no need for the pump. The UK itself is set to test wireless charging for electric cars, the trials being expected to last for 18 months and, subject to the results, could be followed by full road trials. If McKinsey's predictions of a mainstream autonomous car future are to hold true, then most countries should be trialling this technology because a driverless car would not require to pull in to stop to refuel at a conventional petrol station but simply pull into a charging lane whilst continuing its journey at the same time.
“One thing that will have a direct impact on efficiency and cost is the ability to have tight alignment between the vehicle and the pads in the roadway as they pass over." states Dr. Regan Zane, a Utah State University Professor of electrical and computer engineering and part of the Wireless Dynamic Charging project. "We can make it so we have wider tolerances, so you can get power transfer over a wide range, but that’s going to require more material, cost more and reduce efficiency. If instead we assume that we have very tight tolerances, we can really optimize the system, and drop the cost, and we see autonomy as being an integral part of that. We see a couple of options – it might be autonomy assisting the driver, so as the driver comes over the pad, there may be a panel that shows them [the positioning] or the vehicle may take some control to optimize alignment.”
Dr Zane's statements suggest that electric and driverless cars share the same future.
As the demand for fuel starts to drop, so does the levy that Governments collect against it, and against car ownership. And this presents yet another rethink in the face of a new type of car industry.
Govt Duties and Business Taxation
In a study in 2014, it was found that British drivers pay a higher rate of tax on fuel than any other motorists in the European Union. For every litre of petrol bought, 61% of the pump price goes to the government as fuel duty and VAT (Value Added Tax) along with 59% of every litre of diesel. As the need for oil wanes as electric and driverless cars eventually become mainstream, so does the ability to collect duties from the public. Which means governments will have to find another way to tax drivers, and if technology like wireless charging is implemented then expect electricity duties and VAT to be applied instead.
Company car drivers in the UK are also taxed according to the CO2 emissions their chosen vehicle emits. An electric car emits no CO2. What will most likely happen is that drivers will be taxed according to the battery capacity their car has installed.
And with driverless cars comes another drop in income for governments; fines. No more speeding tickets, no more parking violations, no more fines for inconsiderate driving. No more road rage (Ok, that's a stretch too far). But seriously, when this becomes a mainstream technology then policy makers will need to turn to other means to boost government coffers from the public.
Road Infrastructure
To build the roads of the future for driverless and electric cars, we have to look to new materials, and new planning techniques. If we take bike lanes as a perfect example, they have been added across the UK as a mere afterthought because the road and street infrastructure were never built for them in mind. Although the UK is committed in the longer term to install plug-in charging points every 20 miles on the motorway network, it's not enough to support a mainstream movement.
The same goes for converting existing roads across cities, towns and motorways into those that can accommodate a different type of vehicle. And if wireless charging technology points to supporting a mainstream electric future then don't expect roads to be built with bitumen, tarmac, or concrete. Wear and tear from older methods pose too many issues for a system such as Dynamic Wireless Charging. Land Rover is talking about vehicles that automatically report pot-holes directly to local authorities to repair but pot-holes cannot be a 'feature' of the roads in the future for something like DWC.
Insurance
Right now, insurance companies are focused on telematics, providing drivers with a more tailored service based on their driving habits and patterns. With an increase in vehicle artificial intelligence and autonomous driving features, insurance companies will need to completely rethink their business models and just what type of service they provide. Telematics is in fact another example of that glass half full strategy, it's a business model designed to stall thinking about a future that will completely disrupt the car insurance industry.
If you fully relinquish to a driverless car AI for example, and an accident occurs, who is at fault ? And is insurance even needed anymore ? Why bother with a telematics device in the car for personalised insurance if the car is going to do all the driving ? When Tesla finally push the autonomy update to its customers, will insurance companies be ready ? No.
A bright future clouded with insecurity
The Horseless Carriage. Beater. Bucket. Clunker. Crate. Heap. Jalopy. Junker. Rattletrap. Jam Jar. Banger.
Whatever you call a car, the entire industry is about to change. Elon Musk has given us a glimpse of that future but only from one very small part of the chain, and the implications are far reaching and go way beyond simple ownership. Until every piece of the puzzle snaps into place, the future of electric and autonomous cars is like staring out the windscreen into a flat, ever expanding horizon with no focal point.
But it's a future that will certainly arrive, just that the road traveled will be a bumpy one.
