1. Signs of a content bubble. More than ever, editorial and branded content (native ads) are going after the same eyeballs. Compounding that, an explosion of complicated text, video and graphic packages produced by and for content marketers are out of sync with smartphone users who want fast and simple. That reality will require a new round of mobile friendly, easy-to-consume native ads that will run smack into similar efforts by editorial newsrooms.
2. Volume begets data begets volume: Publishers need scaleable content models to profit from Google's ad engine and Facebook's traffic machine. These behemoths provide reams of data that publishers can use to slice, dice and chop their original content into a new batch of consumable mobiles chunks. The duopoly's impact on the declining economic value of the first and second-time written word will continue to grow, as will its influence over the success/failure of emerging non-traditional journalistic formats.
3. Ad blockers take center stage. Marketers are fixated on ad viewability -- they won't pay up if their ads aren't in view for one continuous second. Ad-blocking software means zero seconds from the get-go, so publishers hope a round of anti-blocking initiatives and partial pay walls (no ads for a weekly or monthly fee) will gain consumer favor and recapture revenue. Even The New York Times is saber rattling. What to watch for: Will a Fargo Season 2 Gerhardt-Kansas City feud erupt?
4. Facebook's all-powerful algorithms. The Huffington Post's audience dropped 10 million last month, putting unique visitors at 85 million, down from 119 million in October 2014 (all according to comScore). Upworthy's traffic slid to 12.7 million in January from 19 million the prior month, a long way from the heady days of hockey-stick growth in 2013.
5. Goliaths battle over speed: Facebook (Instant Articles), Google (Google AMP), Apple (Apple News) all want publishers to do it their way so pages load faster on mobile devices. It's unclear how the rules of their games will impact publisher monetization. Irony time: with the Yahoos! and AOL'ers near extinction (one in play, the other a Verizon rounding error), their social and search conquerors are emerging as quasi walled gardens themselves.
6. The rise and rise of messaging apps: Check out this chart, and watch the news industry scurry to grab a new source of audience, page views and revenue (FORBES, too).
The New Game: FORBES recently teamed with Telegram to launch a newsbot on its platform.
7. Mobile CPMs are the future: The print vs. digital ad barometer is so yesterday. The desktop vs. smartphone ad split is the story. At The New York Times, fourth quarter mobile ad sales were 22% of total digital ad sales, which were only one-third of total ad sales. Related facts: print ad revenue fell 7%, as did daily circulation; mobile usage is 60% of daily traffic.
8. Innovation requires scale: The story format desperately needs rethinking for mobile devices. Quartz, now up for sale, cleverly turns news into a texting chat in a new app (check your data usage). As creative is its math: barely profitable + modest sales + 11 million monthly visitors = rumored $100 to $300 million asking price.
9. Favorite target audience: Time Inc. goes all in on stand-alone Web sites for young women — HelloGiggles, xoJane, xoVain and now Motto. With total third-quarter revenues down 12%, why not join the crowded space about “life, work and play” with lots of others: SheKnows, 91 million monthly visitors; PopSugar, 43.6 million; including Bustle.com, 32 million; and Refinery29, 23 million (comScore).
10. Video First = Social First. Willie Sutton robbed banks because that's where the money was. Increasingly, newsrooms are making video specifically for native players on the big social networks. There are plenty of streams in these vaults, with lots of data on reach, clickthrough, etc. But so far, no money. eMarketer does see that changing in a big way, with the mobile-led digital video ad market doubling by 2019.
11. Death of Page View: Yea, yea, yea, we've heard it before, but new factors are in play. Posts will splinter into shareable mobile elements and content marketers, perhaps skeptical of the the page view game, will use their branded content (like they'll soon do on Forbes.com) to seek out influencers they can bring into the fold .
