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Why Pfizer's Pursuit Of AstraZeneca Continues To Shape The Outlook Of Both Companies

This article is more than 8 years old.

A year on from Pfizer abandoning its bid to acquire AstraZeneca and the UK drugmaker has received a timely reminder that touting an impressive R&D pipeline is a far cry from delivering innovative new products to the market.

There is a certain irony that although Pfizer's pursuit was largely motivated by an opportunity to lower its corporate tax rate, it provided the UK drugmaker a suitable canvas on which to paint a picture of rapid pipeline momentum; one framed with an ambitious top-line revenue target of $45 billion by 2023.

Amgen's decision to return development rights for the experimental psoriasis treatment brodalumab to AstraZeneca – prompted by concerns that the drug increases the risk of suicidal thoughts – has helped to shape a neatly packaged narrative; that the UK company will struggle to meet its sales targets given likely termination of the product.

This equation appears to be something of a misnomer.  The majority of analyst revenue forecasts fall short of the targets projected by CEO Pascal Soriot, while the breadth of pipeline expansion overseen by the Frenchman during the past 2.5 years should, in theory, limit the impact of individual product setbacks on broader company performance.

In turn, one suspects that many investors have been willing to take management's revenue aspirations with at least a pinch of salt, while accepting that Soriot was forced to map out tangible (if over ambitious) targets in the heat of Pfizer's pursuit, as long as the company is demonstrating forward momentum. The reality, therefore, is that the brodalumab setback is likely more damaging to sentiment than sales projections.

In contrast to rigid expectations for AstraZeneca, the strategic narrative at Pfizer is one of fluidity – centered on management's 'will they, won't they' rhetoric towards another large-scale deal and potential dismantling of the company in a few years' time, as a means to unlock shareholder value.

Pfizer has made progress both on the regulatory front, with the ongoing and reportedly successful launch of Ibrance for breast cancer, and the development front, albeit with an expensive looking deal with Merck KGaA to bolster its presence in immuno-oncology.

Front-line strategic discussion remains locked, however, on future capital deployment choices; a card that CEO Ian Read has played strongly for some time and which has supported a 16% share price increase for Pfizer over the past 12 months versus a 6% rise for AstraZeneca.

Many believe that Read took a risk in launching Pfizer's bid for AstraZeneca a year ago by muddying a clear message of future  separation and suggesting the company needed to get bigger before it could get smaller. Twelve months on and despite being forced to walk away without his prize, Read has put Pfizer back on course with investors. Soriot on the other hand may be facing stronger headwinds.