Well, it's that time of year. Media organizations are covering the "forecast" from the Old Farmer's Almanac. This year it is saying more freezing temperatures and more snow. I am not going to write about the accuracy of almanacs. There are good discussions about this by Eric Holthaus in Slate, Meteorologist Scott Sabol or Capital Weather Gang.
As I watch important peer-reviewed weather and climate science go ignored, it is frustrating to watch reputable news organizations, like clockwork, salivate over the predictions from these sources or even a "rodent" each year. You are saying, "lighten up Dr. Shepherd, it's just entertainment." The only problem is that I have been around long enough to know that it is not seen that way by many people. I get numerous inquiries per year from friends and random strangers about these sources.
Weather forecasting is already perceived by some as a science of cloud-watching, finger-wagging in the wind, or that explanation from the 4th grade textbook on cold fronts. In reality, it is a rigorous and quantitative science steeped in physics, advanced math, fluid dynamics, and thermodynamics. Media fascination with predictions from almanacs or groundhog perpetuates this perception. By the way, a good source for seasonal outlooks is NOAA's Climate Predictions Center.
So at this moment in time on a warm August day, I felt like documenting my weather pet peeves or myths of the moment.
1. Heat Lightning is really not a "thing." It is not caused by the sky illuminating because it is hot. Because light travels faster than sound, you are seeing lightning from a storm too far away to hear the thunder.
2. A hot day doesn't confirm climate change nor does a cold, snowy day refute it. I like to say, "Weather is your mood, Climate is your personality." Climate represents the "statistics of weather" in space and time. Resist the urge to say it is "average weather." It is also frequency, maxima, minima, and other statistical properties.
3. Cloud trails from airplanes are simply a representation of physics not a massive government conspiracy. Contrails are nicely defined at this link. The process is somewhat similar to the physics of "seeing our breath" on a cold day.
4. Meteorologists are not just on TV. In fact, most meteorologists are not broadcasters at all. Most work for the National Weather Service, private companies, other government agencies, and consulting firms. According to American Meteorological Society statistics, less than 10% of its 14,000 members are on TV.
5. Terms like Polar Vortex, Derecho, Bombogenesis, and El Nino are not new terms. These terms have been in the peer-reviewed scientific literature and meteorological textbooks for many decades, in some cases. And by the way, some of these are misused quite often in the media.
6. In an era of smart phones, there is too much reliance on the emoji forecast. While it can be useful in a broad sense, the emoji is useless for rapidly evolving and often life-threatening weather situations. It is important in those situations to consult your local National Weather Service resources, favorite TV or internet resource, or other rapidly updating weather source.
7. Comments that the "Tropics" are quiet can be short-sighted. Many people tend to associate tropical activity with the Atlantic Ocean. The Atlantic basin is relatively quiet, in part, because of El Nino. In 2015, the Typhoon (essentially hurricanes in the western Pacific) and East Pacific hurricane seasons have been quite active. In fact, at the time of writing, 2 major Typhoons are affecting parts of the Pacific and could eventually affect Taiwan and Japan, respectively.
8. Yes, weather hype in the media and social media is a bit out of hand, but it is not worth losing friends over. This week, a
9. The term "Weather Girls" should go away. Many of my females colleagues are trained and degreed scientists. I just find the term annoying and dated, but I heard it as recently as last week.
10. Standing under trees during lightning is unsafe. On a recent tube rafting trip with my son, a thunderstorm developed. I was surprised at how many people ran for shelter under a tree. One of the worst places to be during lightning.
This is my list for now. I am sure it will be different in a few months when I give you my next installment.
