In late October of this year, Toyota finally began U.S. customer deliveries of its long-awaited Mirai fuel cell electric vehicle and by the end of 2015 it should be highest volume FCV yet. That’s not saying a lot given that neither of the previously available FCVs, the Honda Clarity and Hyundai Tucson made it out of the double digits in deliveries. Toyota however is nothing if not patient, witness the long, slow build up to the ultimate success of the Prius.
“We expect to deliver at least 100 Mirais by the end of December,” said Toyota spokesman John Hanson at an event in Detroit this week. “By the end of the 2016 model year next summer we should have about 1,000 on the road in the U.S.”
At that time, there should be close to 30 public hydrogen refueling stations operational in California including one halfway up the coast between Los Angeles and San Francisco adjacent to a Tesla Supercharger. Next summer should also bring the first deliveries of the Mirai to customers in the northeast as hydrogen pumps become available in that region.
A new report just published by Navigant Research projects global sales of nearly 230,000 fuel cell vehicles annually by 2024 by which time automakers should be well into the second generation of these alternative electric vehicles. Honda will launch deliveries of its new Clarity in 2016 followed by a new higher volume FCV from Hyundai and a hydrogen-fueled version of the Mercedes-Benz GLC crossover in 2018. By 2020, the first new products from the partnership between Honda and GM should also be on the road.
However, the key to commercial success for all of these efforts as with all alternative fuels will be cost and access to refueling infrastructure. Automakers are making progress on new manufacturing techniques and designs that will slash the amount of pricey platinum catalyst needed in the fuel cell stack. However, if people have to drive across town to find a hydrogen station that will have a significant negative impact on consumer acceptance. This is one of the issues has plagued adoption of natural gas vehicles in the U.S. despite the significant cost advantage that natural gas has had over gasoline until recently.
In contrast, electrical outlets are ubiquitous and while a standard wall plug will take a long time to recharge a car battery, it will work even without special equipment.
Potential operators of hydrogen and CNG stations face a similar problem with regulations and building codes varying from county to county across the country requiring a degree of customization for every installation. This is a major contributor to construction costs of more than $1 million per station. Toyota and Honda have each committed millions of dollars to help seed the construction of enough stations to get the process going.
The other alternative is a similar path to the one natural gas has followed in this market where more than half of stations are privately operated by fleets. Fuel cells are generally considered a better electrification alternative than batteries for larger vehicles such as commercial vehicles, buses and long-haul trucking.
If consumers adopt the technology, perhaps the energy companies and station operators will step up their investment in publicly accessible infrastructure. If not, hydrogen may be limited to the heavy end of the market place.
