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The 5 New Questions That Will Determine If There's A Government Shutdown In 2 Weeks

This article is more than 8 years old.

Here we go again: There are less than 2 weeks left before the current continuing resolution expires at midnight December 11. If Congress and the White House don’t agree on some kind of extension by then, the federal government will shut down.

The one big difference between what’s about to happen and what occurred at the end of September is that Paul Ryan (R-WI) has replaced John Boehner (R-OH) as speaker of the House. That presumably rules out the tactic Boehner used to get the CR adopted by resigning and taking away the House Freedom Caucus’ ability to threaten his continuing as speaker. But these days you can’t (and absolutely shouldn’t) rule out anything that’s highly unexpected when it comes to what Congress will do so…

That’s why I’m convinced we’re starting with a not insignificant 25 percent chance of a federal government shutdown in December . There are just too many imponderables, too much emotion and a hell of a lot of resentment and anger to completely dismiss the probability, as some analysts want to do.

That means, of course, that there’s a 75 percent chance there won’t be a shutdown. But the chance of it happening could increase rapidly depending on how the following five questions get answered.

1. Will the Freedom Caucus again demand the speaker do its bidding on the next funding bill?

It’s hard to imagine that the HFC will suddenly change from the GOP Tasmanian devil that essentially ousted Boehner and made it impossible for House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) to replace him to a meek political lamb that will let Ryan compromise in whatever way is needed to prevent a government shutdown.

To the contrary, the HFC likely decided not to stand in Ryan’s way as speaker just so it could demand tribute from him on the funding bill.

The question is how far will the HFC go? Will the Freedom Caucus threaten another Republican speaker with political castration if he doesn’t do what it wants and how it wants it done?

2. Will Speaker Ryan have the political wherewithal to say no to the Freedom Caucus?

Ryan may have had some early tests in the month since he became speaker, but they will all seem relatively minor compared to what’s ahead for him between now and December 11 on government funding.

As I posted last week, Ryan doesn’t really have much choice but to give in to the Freedom Caucus – which includes the most extreme and take-no-prisoners elements of the GOP conference – when the House considers its version of either an omnibus appropriation or another continuing resolution (I’m betting on a second CR). That means spending levels and policy riders that neither the Senate nor White House are likely to accept.

Ryan’s real test will come later when the Senate passes its own version of the funding bill with what is almost certain to be different spending levels and policy provisions than the GOP conference…especially the HFC…wants.

Will he be able to convince his members to concede and go along with something that is acceptable to their Senate colleagues (and the Obama administration)? Will he be able to pull a Boehner and work with Democrats to get the votes needed? Will he have to push back and risk a shutdown by rejecting what the Senate wants or needs to pass?

3. Will Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) again insist there will be no shutdown?

McConnell has a very different political dynamic than Ryan. An overwhelming 24 of the 34 senators up for reelection in 2016 are Republicans and his members have enough tight races that continued GOP control of the Senate is a big question. To protect his members, his majority and his position as leader, McConnell may continue to feel that he has to prevent a shutdown.

Senators represent whole states that in most cases are more moderate than the gerrymandered congressional districts of House Republicans. Where a shutdown could very well be a reelection positive for a House member, it could be a political disaster for an incumbent GOP senator.

That’s the single biggest reason McConnell was so insistent in September that there wouldn’t be shutdown, the bill would be “clean and wouldn’t include any riders and the debt ceiling would be raised on time: his members couldn’t afford anything else.

The question is whether McConnell will be similarly insistent this time that there be no shutdown. Not only will he be working with a new speaker who needs support at this early stage in his tenure, the funding for Syrian refugees question presents a new and very emotional issue on which the House may be in no mood to concede.

If McConnell doesn’t go along with the House and Ryan doesn’t stand down, McConnell could end up causing the shutdown he’s been so eager to avoid.

4. Will the Republican presidential race have an impact on whether there’s a shutdown?

Frontrunner Donald Trump has already made it clear that the GOP House and Senate leadership made a mistake in September by not threatening a shutdown and he’ll very likely will be sharpening his words and shrillness as December 11 get’s closer. Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) has been publicly in favor of using extreme tactics like shutdowns for a long time and almost certainly will be vocal about doing that this time.

And given that all of the other candidates are competing for the same GOP base voters in the presidential primaries and that most of these voters would probably cheer a shutdown if it occurred, many of the other Republicans running for president will likely be there as well.

The question is whether Ryan and McConnell will be able to ignore what Trump, Cruz et al. will be saying

5. How much hardball will the White House play?

The Obama administration did something it previously said it wouldn’t do when the current continuing resolution was put in place: it negotiated. After demanding nothing but clean bills when a debt ceiling increase was involved, the White House acceded to several GOP preferences.

It’s not clear what the White House’s negotiating strategy will be this time around. The debt ceiling doesn’t have to be raised so the administration’s often-repeated approach of a clean bill or nothing could be abandoned.

But any indication that the president is willing to deal could unleash a demand from Congress for policy riders in a wide variety of areas the administration is unwilling to accept.

There’s also the question of whether the White House will insist that Congress spend the full amount that was agreed to in the September budget deal. The administration will likely look at that amount as an ironclad contract but House Republicans (who weren’t really part of the deal) may well think of it as a maximum rather than a guarantee.