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Box Office: 'Spectre' Tops $300M, Can The James Bond Series Recover?

This article is more than 8 years old.

Back in 1965,  James Bond mania hit what would arguably be its peak with Thunderball. The Terence Young-helmed adventure wasn't just the fourth film in the 007 franchise, it was the one that came after Goldfinger. It was Goldfinger that turned the series from a relatively popular movie franchise into the defining franchise of its time, while also laying some of the groundwork for the modern blockbuster action movie. So it made sense that Thunderball would cash in on that prior success, and it did. While Goldfinger earned a whopping $51 million in 1964, compared to the $24 million domestic gross for From Russia With Love (and $20m for Dr. No), Thunderball earned $61m in 1965, the equivalent of $632m in 2015 dollars.

But then the fifth installment, which arrived in 1967, took a comparative nosedive. You Only Live Twice, which was Lewis Gilbert's first entry in the franchise and basically defined many of the kitschy elements of the series (Blofeld, the impenetrable island fortress, etc.), earned just $43m in 1967 dollars. Adjusted for inflation, the fifth 007 film earned $299m, which means it sold less than half the number of tickets as Thunderball. And yet, somehow, the James Bond series survived to a sixth, seventh, and eventually 25th installment. So as we debate and discuss whether or not Spectre is big enough of a hit or good enough of a movie, in the end it doesn't really matter.

Spectre has earned $83 million in America after five days of release, including a big 37% jump from Monday to Tuesday, which already makes it (not adjusted for inflation) the biggest 007 movie ever outside the recent Pierce Brosnan/Daniel Craig entries. Adjusted for inflation, it's just above the $72m "adjusted" gross of the series low point, Timothy Dalton's second and final entry License to Kill from back in 1989. Oh, and it has crossed $300m worldwide in fifteen days of worldwide play. At this juncture, if it has similar legs to Quantum of Solace, it will end its run with around $176m domestic. That would make it the second-biggest 007 grosser, well behind Skyfall ($304m) and just ahead of Die Another Day ($160m), Casino Royale ($167m), and Quantum of Solace ($168m).

Yes, Skyfall was something of a fluke, but looking at the "adjusted for inflation" list of James Bond movies, you can argue that Goldfinger and Thunderball were flukes too.

After those two films, you get SkyfallYou Only Live Twice, and then nothing else over $233 million domestic even adjusted for inflation. If Spectre ends up with $176m domestic (2.49x a $70.4m debut weekend, same multiplier as Quantum of Solace), it will be right in the middle of the pack of James Bond films, ironically stuck right between a four-film chunk of Roger Moore movies. For all of the talk about how fans yearn for a return to the broader, wittier Roger Moore years, it should be noted that six of the seven Roger Moore 007 entries sit among the bottom eleven grossers. If you look at the bottom eleven 007 grossers in terms of inflation, you get the two Timothy Dalton entries, On Her Majesty's Secret Service, a "fake" Sean Connery Bond movie (Never Say Never Again), the very first James Bond movie (Dr. No), and six of the seven Roger Moore films.

Yes, Roger Moore defines the franchise for any number of longtime fans. Heck, I would argue that Moonraker is underrated while The Spy Who Loved Me is one of the very best films in the franchise and probably (along with maybe Brosnan's "line drive to second base" Tomorrow Never Dies) the definitive "show a newbie this one first" 007 adventure. But James Bond was never as popular when Roger Moore was playing him as he was when Sean Connery, Pierce Brosnan, or Daniel Craig played him. But beyond that with a few outliers there was always something of a ceiling for our longest-running action franchise.

Expecting Spectre to do Skyfall numbers is similar to complaining that You Only Live Twice didn't perform like Thunderball.

Spectre is something of a tonal homage to the Roger Moore era, a time when, with all due respect, the 007 franchise was not remotely at its peak. So it shouldn't be too surprising that said film, which awkwardly mixes Sean Connery mythology (Connery and Lazenby are the only Bond actors who officially faced Blofeld or S.P.E.C.T.R.E.) with Roger Moore schtick, will end up around the bottom half of the franchise. But in an era when Walt Disney's  Avengers: Age of Ultron was tagged as a disappointment because it made only $1.4 billion worldwide ($100m less than The Avengers), can you imagine the outcry if  Spectre really collapses and runs with $145m domestic? It will still be the fifth-biggest grosser of the series but of course would be the sixth-lowest of the series adjusted for inflation.

But here's the rub: Yes, Spectre may do around $175-$190 million domestic, which would put it squarely in the middle of the pack. Obviously overseas is a different story, but with $300m in around two weeks, I think a $650-$800m worldwide total is arguably the bare minimum at this point (as always, China is a wild card), which again would put it only under Skyfall. But so what?  Even if Spectre crashes and burns here and abroad, even if it barely tops $150m domestic and/or struggles to hit $600m worldwide, what exactly are the consequences? James Bond will be back regardless because the franchise is still incredibly popular.

And while a lower-grossing film may impact who bids what in terms of which studio acquires distribution rights from EON Productions and MGM, the only real consequence is that the parties will do their best not to spend $240m next time out. Daniel Craig will probably be back, the film will get a boost from the whole 55th anniversary as well as theoretically being Craig's swan song, and we'll get even more arbitrary speculation over who might replace him for the 27th Bond movie. James Bond will survive Spectre precisely because it is a James Bond movie. Even if the populace at large dislikes Spectre as much as I did, and I won't presume my opinion is the majority, EON Productions, Barbara Broccoli, and Michael G. Wilson can just up and start from scratch. They have the choice to keep or discard as much of what happened in Spectre as they choose.

They can call in Martin Campbell to save the day yet again (cue Mask of Zorro theme as Mr. Campbell sees the signal from his window and leaps into action), they can bring in a fresh young British talent (you've read the same lists I have), or they can give the keys to Chris Nolan so he can finally get it out of his system. But The Man With the Golden Gun (the worst film in the series and so bad it makes Spectre look like Casino Royale) was followed up by The Spy Who Loved Me, while the allegedly underwhelming Quantum of Solace (I like it well enough, natch) was followed up by the blockbuster success of Skyfall. By virtue of its ability to radically transform each time out, for better or worse, the 007 franchise has maintained relative popularity for 53 years. I don't think a mere $175m domestic/$650m worldwide "disaster" of Spectre is going to hurt the franchise one bit.

Someone, some way, James Bond will survive.

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