At the end of a weekend devoid of Kentucky Derby prep races, a horse that hasn’t raced since last September emerged as the favored individual betting choice in the third pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager.
The champion 2-year-old colt of 2014, American Pharoah won two of three races last year, his two wins both coming in Grade I races. Injured last fall, he is expected to make his first start of 2015 in the Grade II Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on March 14. On the strength of his wins last year, he sits at #14 in the Kentucky Derby points standings with 10.
While the field, or all horses other than the 23 individual wagering interests in the future pool, emerged the favorite at 4-1 ($10.60 payout for a $2 bet), American Pharoah ended up at 8-1 ($18.20). Total wagering on the Kentucky Derby in this third pool was a shade over $422,330 up from the $334,326 wagered last year.
The fourth and last Kentucky Derby Futures Wager will be held from March 27 to March 29.
After a last-place finish in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes at Turfway Park on Saturday night, The Great War was declared by his trainer, Wesley Ward, to be off the Derby trail and was removed from future wagering early Sunday afternoon, joining early contenders Calculator and Leave the Light On on the sidelines.
A horse that has yet to run in a Derby prep emerged the fifth betting choice at 13-1 ($29.60). An easy winner of his only two races, the last by nearly 13 lengths, Khozan may take his first shot at Derby points in the Grade I, $1 million Besilu Stables Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on March 28.
At the end of pool 3 in 2013 and 2014, “all others” remained the favorite, at 3-1 both years. Last year’s Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands winner California Chrome closed at 32-1 in the third pool; bettors who bought a $2 win ticket then would have cashed for $67.60, rather than the $7 he paid to win for a $2 win bet on Derby day.
The favored individual betting interest at the end of 2014 pool 3 was Cairo Prince at 9-1. A career-ending injury in April of last year prevented him from running in the Kentucky Derby, highlighting one of the risks of the future wager: if your horse doesn’t make it to the race, your wager isn’t refunded. (Check out the future pool wagering advice of some professional handicappers.)
In pool 3 in 2013, Kentucky Derby winner Orb was the fourth betting choice at odds of 12-1, which resulted in a payout of $26.20 to future bettors; on Derby day he went off favored at 5.40-1 and paid $12.80.
The favored individual interest in pool 3 in 2013, Verrazano at 9-1, finished 14th in the Derby.
In the only pool of the Kentucky Oaks future wager, bettors made the field, or “all others” the 7-2 favorite ($9.80 for a $2 bet), followed by I’m a Chatterbox, winner of two Kentucky Oaks preps, at 6-1 ($15.60). Total wagering on the Oaks pool was $115,615, up significantly from last year’s handle of $81,234.
I'm a Chatterbox and Luis Saez at Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans. Photo credit Lou Hodges... [+]
Last year, future bettors made Untapable the 5-1 overall favorite, with slightly lower odds than the field; a future ticket on her would have paid $12.00. The winner of the 2014 Longines Kentucky Oaks, Untapable paid $4.00 on race day.
In the 2013 future pool, the field closed at 3-1 and the favored individual interest, Flashy Gray, at 6-1. In an all-too-common occurrence, Flashy Gray was injured in late March and retired without racing again.
The winner of the 2013 Kentucky Oaks, Princess of Sylmar, closed in the future wager at odds of 19-1 for a $41 payout, which sounds great, except that on race day she went off at almost 39-1 and paid $79.60.
In Kentucky Oaks prep action, Local Time took the only Oaks prep race that takes place outside of North America, the UAE Oaks at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai. Her 50 points would put her in fourth place in the standings, but the British-bred filly who has done all of her racing in England and Dubai isn’t nominated to the Kentucky Oaks. Should owner Godolphin Stable—the racing enterprise of Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum of Dubai—elect to point her to the Oaks, she could be nominated for $1,500 by April 8, or supplemented to the race for $30,000 at the time of entry in late April.
Slipping into spot #4 on the leaderboard is Stellar Wind, winner of the Grade III Santa Ysabel at Santa Anita on Saturday. The daughter of Curlin, the two-time Horse of the Year who won the 2007 Preakness Stakes, was purchased for $40,000 as a yearling in August 2013, then was pinhooked a month later for $86,000.
The next Kentucky Oaks prep race is the Grade III Honeybee on March 7 at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas.
