Like most, I generally assume everything
How could I not? Their track record is amazing, and from the iPhone to iPad, MacBook Air to the app store, the company has, without a doubt, the highest batting average in the entire business world, let alone that of tech.
But not even Apple can hit a home run every time, and every once in a while turns in a bloop single such as iTunes Radio (before Beats), the first generation Apple TV and last year's attempt at a native podcast app.
Where will HomeKit fall on Apple's field of dreams? Even if you are only a casual observer of the smart home industry, you know most expect a big hit. It's this year's biggest story in the space, even though it's yet to happen. The excitement for HomeKit is palpable, with the entire industry waiting to see if Apple's effort to bring the company's trademark simplicity and straightforwardness to the smart home will create a new golden age for the connected home and, finally, bring home automation to the mainstream consumer.
It's a lot to expect of an effort that, according to my sources, Apple itself has fairly modest expectations for out of the gate. It also led me to think about what would happen if HomeKit fails to meet expectations. Not that I expect it to - in fact, I expect Apple and HomeKit to eventually be a very important part of the broader smart home - but I do think it's worth at least considering what could make Apple's foray into smart home fall drastically short of expectations.
Here are a few ways I think such a scenario could happen:
HomeKit Doesn't Make The Smart Home Simpler
Apple's motivation behind HomeKit is it wants to make iOS devices the central control point for the smart home. In other words, make switching costs to another operating system even higher.
Most of us are ok with locking ourselves further into the Apple ecosystem, but a part of the bargain is that we get something in return. That something with HomeKit is a simpler, most cohesive smart home, a smart home that simply works without heavy installation, expensive subscription fees and more. But if Apple's effort here is something akin to, let's say, iTunes for most of the past decade (a pretty clunky piece of software), then there's a chance it could actually be more difficult and consumers decide to stay away.
Apple Brings Closed Approach To A Market In Need of Openness
As we all know, when entering new product categories Apple likes to own the "full stack", which often means creating their own ecosystem and inviting others to join. In the smart home, such an approach is impossible since openness and interoperability across various device types is required.
In fact, if there's one consistent theme that I've been hearing from smart home execs the last few months, it's that the industry needs to embrace openness and interoperability if this industry is to ever deliver on its promise. These folks know a bunch of competing standards and proprietary products from companies with clashing agendas will cause significant harm and delay the adoption of the technology as consumers tune out. Apple likely can create a de facto standard with HomeKit, but ultimately it needs to play nice with other technologies (as it has shown it is doing with Insteon).
Reliance On Siri Proves Annoying
It's clear that HomeKit will make fairly extensive use of Siri, but most voice control integrations with our in-home lives so far have proven either super annoying (read Xbox One's Kinect voice commands) or not ready for primetime (like Amazon's Echo). Siri is further along than both of these with iOS, but I'm not entirely convinced Apple will get a voice-controlled home right out of the gate.
HomeKit Proves Too Limited
From what I've heard, Apple has had quite a steep learning curve with the smart home. There are a significant number of moving parts and the industry's evolving very quickly, so it's probably right to expect the first version of HomeKit will be fairly limited in nature compared to what the vision eventually calls for. But if the goods delivered don't meet the high expectations and deliver consumers, the high burden Apple is putting on HomeKit partners could cause some to see the price of entry as too high and pull support.
The bottom line is HomeKit will likely expand the smart home market and will make it much more approachable. But before HomeKit is nominated for smart home's MVP of 2015, let's first see how it performs in its rookie season.
Michael Wolf is a smart home analyst for NextMarket and host of the Smart Home Show. Keep up to date with the smart home with his Smart Home Weekly.
