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Mayweather Vs. Pacquiao Pay Per View Should Fall Short Of Expectations

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On Saturday, May 2, Manny Pacquiao faces off against Floyd Mayweather Jr. in the most anticipated fight of the decade. For a price of $90 (standard definition) or $100 (high definition) one can purchase the fight on Pay Per View. The expectation is that Pay Per View sales will break records, and they most certainly will, but those sales will probably not reach the levels that many prognosticators have suggested.

As is typically the case, sportsbooks are providing prop bets on items surrounding and related to the main event.  One such prop bet is based on the total number of Pay Per View buys expected.  At Sports Interaction, the line has been set at 3.8 million PPV purchases. The lowest lines on this prop bet seem to be listed at 3.15 million, with an over bet paying out less than a winning under bet.  While the Mayweather vs. Pacquiao fight should come close to that number, it is likely to fall short based on a variety of influencing elements, including but not limited to the exorbitant cost to purchase the fight on Pay Per View and the ease of access to alternative methods of receiving the content in this age of the Internet.

"I would put out the argument that we are going to see fewer views than 3.15 million," said Zack Jones, Editor and Chief of SportsbookReview.com.  "I think 3 million is probably closer to where the line should be set.  This is the first, I dare say, 'Fight of the Century' for the social media age.  Now we have streaming services, YouTube, clips of highlights.  You can pretty much stream anything.  It's not that hard to find these streams."

What Jones is largely referring to is the potential for widespread illegal streaming of the Mayweather vs. Pacquiao fight.  It is a serious concern for sporting event operators, who acknowledge the existence of illegal streaming services that violate copyrights and serve as a major threat to an event's bottom line.  However, Jones notes that this population is Internet savvy and many people know where to find live streams.  That, in addition to a steep $100 asking price on Pay Per View, may lead to a number of PPV buys lower than what is currently being anticipated.

It will be a struggle for the Mayweather vs. Pacquiao fight to reach more than 3.15 million PPV buys  even without the threat of illegal streaming services.  May 2 is being referred to as the biggest day in sports history and Sports Armageddon.  It includes the NFL Draft, New York Yankees at the Boston Red Sox, the Kentucky Derby, and ends with Mayweather vs. Pacquiao.  Jones believes there will be a large group of people will simply do not feel the need to spend $100 to watch the Mayweather vs. Pacquiao fight after such a long, tolling day of tremendous sporting events.

Then there is the fact that 3.15 million PPV buys (which is lower than the 4 million buys that some suggest) is a major increase from the prior record set by Mayweather and Oscar De La Hoya in 2007.  That fight brought in 2.4 million PPV purchases.  The cost to purchase that fight on Pay Per View was $55.  The price to buy the May 2 Mayweather vs. Pacquiao fight on PPV is almost double the price.

Meanwhile, people seem to be less eager to shell out money to watch live events on Pay Per View in 2015.  In 2009, the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) had an average of 615,000 Pay Per View buys per event.  In 2014, that number dropped to roughly 260,000 PPV purchases on average.  While that drop may have more to do with the UFC than Pay Per View, it is not a promising sign leading up to the Mayweather vs. Pacquiao event, nor for the continued success of Pay Per View as a platform for generating significant sales.

"This could be last big Pay Per View event, with the argument that Pay Per View events no longer make sense from a monetary aspect," concluded Jones.

Darren Heitner is a lawyer and the Founder of South Florida-based HEITNER LEGAL, P.L.L.C., which has a focus on Sports Law and Entertainment Law.