Regardless whether he wins his fifth MVP or not, it’s still a pretty safe bet to call LeBron James the best player in the NBA, or even by the more popular, “best player on the planet.’’
Somehow, though, James doesn’t measure up to the New Orleans Pelicans’ Anthony Davis, in one vital statistical category: The “Unibrow’’ has the highest player efficiency rating (PER), at 31.2. In fact, in only his third NBA season, Davis has a chance over the next two months to break the all-time PER in NBA history, set by Wilt Chamberlain, who had a 31.82 PER in 1962-63.
What the heck is PER and do the Pelicans even know where Davis ranks? Of course they do, since they’re like most of the 30 NBA teams. While some teams are obsessed with big data to get them to the Holy Grail, the Pelicans are among a group of clubs that use it to merely help them measure and evaluate their players’ performances. So when they were accused in a recent piece in “
The Pelicans’ GM,
Judging from Demps’ quick reaction to putting out what was viewed as a five-alarm fire, the use of advance stats is a very touchy subject these days. If you’re not busy crunching numbers with cutting-edge metrics, people look at you the way the Warriors’ Stephen Curry might view a basketball with laces. Many of those people are assembling this weekend for the annual MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. Founded by Rockets GM Daryl Morey in 2007, the conference is getting more publicity than ever, after Morey and Charles Barkley went toe-to-toe a few weeks ago over the whole analytics craze.
"The NBA is about talent," said Barkley on TNT’s “Inside the NBA.’’ "All these guys who run these organizations who talk about analytics, they have one thing in common _ they're a bunch of guys who have never played the game, and they never got the girls in high school, and they just want to get in the game."
Barkley has called Morey “one of those idiots who believe in analytics,’’ and Morey has more than his share of detractors around the league. But he’s also managed to build a championship contender, led by MVP candidate James Harden. He shot back that Barkley is fond of “spewing misinformed biased vitriol disguised as entertainment.’’ Recently, he kept up the assault on non-believers, telling Bleacher Report’s Howard Beck: “It’s like arguing with a baby, or someone who believes the Earth is flat.’’
The debate over the use of advanced metrics rages, but make no mistake, they're here to stay. Many of the league’s newer owners embrace them in hopes of getting an edge. But analytics have been around longer than they might think. Miami’s Pat Riley came up with comprehensive defensive player rankings about 20 years ago, regularly grilling his players before practice about where they stood. A decade before that, he was using big data to figure out how to get the most out of his Lakers championship clubs. But he’s also a firm believer in the traditional methods of in-person scouting, video work and the use of his basketball IQ to appraise players. As he told me last season after a game in Washington, “It’s funny what’s going on now with analytics. People have to realize, they’ve been using statistics in the NBA since 1946. It’s just grown by leaps and bounds.’’
For all the good analytics have done for Riley’s recent title teams, along with the defending champion Spurs and some of the NBA’s other top franchises, they haven't broken the code on a pinning down a player’s defensive efficiency/effectiveness. There’s no way to measure how well a player contests shots, for instance. In the bigger picture, big data also hasn’t been able to answer five of the most critical questions that all teams want to know when assessing talent:
*Does the player like to play?
Even if they’re making millions in fully-guaranteed contracts, there have been notable cases where players simply don’t like to play. Go look at the careers of such underachievers as Joe Barry Carroll, Michael Olowokandi, Derrick Coleman and Andrew Bynum. They were all skilled big men, but when it came to actually liking to play, they could all take it or leave it.
*Does the player like to compete?
The Nets once drafted Dennis Hopson, a big-time college scorer, with the third overall pick in 1987. But after three injury-filled seasons and a 12-points-per-game scoring average, they admitted their mistake and shipped Hopson to the Bulls. During his limited time in the Meadowlands they found out that Hopson wasn’t very much of a competitor. As one Nets assistant coach back then, Lee Rose, famously complained, “All he really cares about are his cars.’’
*How tough is the player?
All teams want to know how a player responds after he gets his butt kicked, but they can’t go looking to analytics for the answer. “Just think Eddy Curry,’’ said one NBA GM. The Knicks in 2005 acquired Curry, with a fully-guaranteed, $56-million contract, during the Isiah Thomas era, when things started to really go bad in Madison Square Garden. As part of the deal to obtain Curry from Chicago, the Knicks forked over a future No. 1 pick. Chicago turned that into Joakim Noah, who last season was named Defensive Player of the Year. While Curry, a big, likeable teddy bear had a reputation for not fighting back when an opponent got the best of him, Noah is no softy.
*How hard does the player work?
Teams are always looking for players who listen and are willing to be coached, but they’re just as interested in finding players who want to become better through countless hours of practice in the gym. A former No. 1 overall pick, Kwame Brown, was derided for his lack of work ethic. Of course that criticism came from his boss and one of the most maniacal workers and competitors of all time, Michael Jordan.
*How much does the player want to win?
Kobe Bryant is consumed with collecting championship rings, and God forbid if you’re not on board with his plan, as Dwight Howard found out during his one season of torture with the Lakers. Did you catch Bryant’s reaction this week when his Laker teammates staged an on-court celebration after raising their record to an unsightly 14-41? He wanted to strangle all of them. But other superstars, including Howard and Carmelo Anthony, are not nearly as driven to win. When it comes to finding out how much a player burns to succeed, the numbers just don’t tell the story.
