New data has raised a tantalizing possibility: That for the first time, America's uninsured rate will fall below 10%.
(If it hasn't already; the most recently reported data was collected three months ago.)
The findings come from the Urban Institute's Health Reform Monitoring Survey, a quarterly survey of non-elderly Americans.
And as of March 2015, the Urban Institute's survey found that 10.0% of nonelderly adults were uninsured, down from 17.8% in September 2013, before the Affordable Care Act's insurance exchanges first launched.
No major survey has ever found that the uninsured rate in America has hit single digits.
However, the uninsured rate is already down to 7.5% in states that have expanded Medicaid under Obamacare, Urban researchers concluded.
Of course, Urban's data is just one snapshot of the uninsured in America.
Different surveys use different questions and methodologies. Some are thought to be more rigorous than others. And they don't always agree.
"Some of the surveys being used now to determine the rate weren't even around or weren't asking health insurance questions a decade ago," Paul Fronstin of the Employee Benefit Research Institute tells Kaiser Health News senior correspondent Julie Rovner.
For instance, Urban's survey draws from an Internet panel of 55,000 participants. And researchers are up front about the limitations of their survey, which they say carries "more risks and potential errors than federal government surveys." (Just looking at the methodology, I'd be concerned by the relatively low response rate of 5%.)
A separate RAND longitudinal survey takes a different tack: It looks at how Obamacare changed insurance in America.
And while Urban's survey suggests that 15 million people have gained health coverage since the ACA's exchanges took effect, RAND's own researchers put that number closer to 17 million people.
Why the difference? Partly because millions of Americans have obtained coverage through employer-sponsored insurance, RAND researchers suggest.
Meanwhile, Gallup's survey — thought to be one of the most rigorous and consistent monitors of health insurance — found that the U.S. uninsured rate fell to 11.9% in the first quarter of 2015.
While 11.9% is the lowest rate that Gallup has found in seven years of maintaining the poll, it's important to note how it differs from Urban's finding of 10.0%, especially when every percentage point of movement is considered a major victory or loss.
But all the surveys are aligned in one area: The nation's uninsured rate has quickly plummeted since the ACA took effect.
And a review of historic data suggests that it may be down to its lowest level on record.
"There were times in the mid-1970s when the uninsurance rate rivaled today," points out Harold Pollack, a University of Chicago professor and expert on social services. "Otherwise, it is as low as it has ever been."
The relative speed of the falling uninsured rate has become a political talking point, and an easy (if drastically incomplete) way to judge the success of the ACA.
On Monday night's episode of "All In With Chris Hayes," Hayes and his guest Judd Gregg argued over these numbers, with Hayes correctly pointing out that the health law appears to have helped expand coverage to at least 14 million people.
(Gregg, a Republican leader in New Hampshire, had claimed that the ACA only helped 4 million people get covered.)
Of course, getting health insurance isn't a cure-all. Plenty of plans sold through ACA exchanges are thin and force customers to pay many out-of-pocket costs. Democrats are starting to push on "underinsurance" as a key political issue.
And there are real questions over who will foot the bill for America's expanded coverage.
But it's clear if you lack health coverage, becoming insured offers real benefits. More insurance improves your access to see a doctor, and reduces your problems paying for medical care.
Being insured even appears to cut down on your risk of death.
Having more insured customers is good for the health care industry, too. Hospitals are reporting huge jobs gains, and the health care sector is reporting its best 12-month stretch of new jobs in almost 25 years.
Overall, the importance of health insurance can't be understated, Pollack says.
"Given the greater financial and health value of current insurance, and the protections embodied in ACA, no previous time really compares to today," he points out.
And he sees a relatively bright future for coverage expansion.
"Despite administrative and legislative missteps and political gridlock, [the] ACA is functioning surprisingly well in most of the United States," Pollack adds.
"Assuming that the Supreme Court doesn't issue a destructive decision in King v. Burwell, I would anticipate that recalcitrant states will gradually expand Medicaid over the next several years to consolidate the gains that have been made."
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