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Recapping 2014's Predictions: Hits And Misses

This article is more than 9 years old.

In what's now an annual tradition for me at Forbes, before I look ahead to 2015 I take a look back at last year's predictions and do a bit of a scorecard. Because a lot of the items contain a few elements the end result isn't a numerical tally, but rather a sense of things. As with 2013, you'll see for nearly everything I got right, there was something I got terribly wrong. Keep this advice in mind when reading the companion post that contains the forward-looking 2015 predictions. Onto the recap.

(For a look at what I'm thinking for the coming year, click on "15 Intrepid Predictions for 2015")

1) The U.S. economy

I was bullish on GDP, and apparently with good reason. Though the year started off sluggish, with -2.1% growth, the following quarters saw 4.6% and 5.0% upticks -- the best since the start of the Great Recession. Unemployment fell to 5.8%, however, outdoing my number of 6.3%. And while I said price rises would "still barely materialize," I suggested inflation would edge toward 2%. It did (hitting 1.7%) if you strip out food and energy. More on this in a moment.

2) Commodities

Like nearly everyone, I wasn't on record predicting an oil price collapse. Score this a near-complete miss. The only right part of the call is that I saw spreads declining between West Texas Intermediate and Brent. They have, shrinking to less than $5. Elsewhere, this was a winning category for me. Bitcoin indeed went "crazy up and crazy down" as predicted. It also gained widespread acceptance at Microsoft, Dell, Expedia and others. Gold fell slightly. On currency, I had the yen at 115 to the dollar; it's now at 120. I called for 1.25 on the euro vs. the current 1.22. This category would look like a huge win were it not for the overwhelming miss on oil. Ah well.

3) Cash giants

I correctly predicted Cisco would increase its share-buying activities but didn't call Apple expanding their now-record buyback program. That said, I did predict Apple would do its biggest acquisition ever and the $3 billion Beats deal qualifies. I suggested Apple might also sell 100 million iPhones in the first two quarters of its fiscal year (it managed 95 million) and that would ignite a rally in its shares (which certainly happened, Apple's up 43% in the past 12 months).

4) Telecom mergers

Despite lots of hype, I said T-Mobile and Sprint wouldn't merge. They didn't. But then I suggested Dish Network would merge with someone, perhaps even DirecTV. It didn't. Instead, AT&T pursued a merger with DirecTV that's basically sitting in queue between the Comcast-Time Warner Cable merger right now.

5) Multiple compression for stocks

It seemed like it might be time for price-sales multiples to decline for some high-flying companies. LinkedIn, indeed, fell below 15x sales, though shares rose slightly. Twitter shares shed 40% of their value though the price/sales ratio still sits over 20x! Workday traded nearly flat as the ratio also dropped. It's still a rather high 22x, though growth there remains strong. Call this prediction directionally correct and one where I'm pleased that shareholders didn't experience the forecast pain.

6) The Google/Apple race 

On the other hand, the Google-Apple market cap battle got less interesting. I suggested Google had ample room to run, perhaps headed toward $750 (the number in the post was $1500, but the stock has split 2:1 since). Instead, it ended the year down a few percent. Notably, I liked Apple staying ahead of Google for the year. That proved incredibly easy as Apple's cushion is $300 billion right now and would've been $100 billion even with Google performing up to my expectations. Call this one directionally incorrect even if the outcome looked right.

7) IPOs

None of the predicted companies went public, most significantly Box. The enterprise SaaS company filed early, re-filed late, raised more capital in the private markets and is still waiting for its chance. With Alibaba, Go Pro, Lending Club and others combining in the best year for IPOs this millennium, my waiting for Dropbox, AirBnB, Square and Uber seems silly in retrospect.

8) Sports

Do not wager your money on my sports predictions. That is all.

9) Movies

The prior year, I did great on the acting awards and predicted a Best Picture whose director was shut out of the category. This past year, I came up strong with 12 Years a Slave and missed on pretty much everything else. We'll see if there's a back-and-forth pattern in 2015.

10) Congress

I had delusional hopes for an immigration bill. We didn't really get close to one. That said, my bullishness on Obamacare signups looks good. My optimism the Republicans would try to fix the worst elements of the Affordable Care Act, however, didn't come to fruition. Maybe in 2015?

11) Elections

I like the GOP to gain seats. I just didn't like them quite enough, forecasting House and Senate gains both smaller than what came to pass. Fortunately, we won't have to see Joe Biden breaking ties in the Senate. Unfortunately for Biden, he still poses no credible threat to Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination.

12) Bigger iPhones

On cue, the bigger iPhone arrived. What I didn't see coming was the phablet. Apple roared back with a vengeance here, but it preserved the 5c as is. It also kept pricing for it at $449, above the $399 I was looking for. I'd say bigger iPhones were inevitable, but important. And given how much I write about Apple, it would have pained me to have spent late 2014 explaining the strategic disaster had they not done this.

13) Google Glass

While the product still hasn't gone commercial as I suggested it would, it has become available to everyone. It hasn't, however, seen a price cut. In fact, Google Glass is moribund. Talk -- if there is anyone still talking about it -- has turned to the "2.0 version" but only because the current model is mostly stillborn. It's a shame because there are promising ideas there. But there's no tech product in history that has sat around in this weird beta state for several years and then become a hit.

14) Electric vehicles

Well, the BMW i3 arrived as called and the Nissan Leaf had a huge year with record sales as predicted. Tesla, similarly, has done well though a slower-than-expected production transition hurt deliveries from the factory a bit. Tesla neither started deliveries of the Model X nor showed off a Model 3 prototype and Chevy still hasn't really shown off the new Volt. So the soft stuff in this prediction didn't come to pass. The bigger trend, however, did: EV sales rose even while gas prices plummeted. Whether this continues in 2015 will be worth watching.

For a look at what I'm thinking for the coming year, click on "15 Intrepid Predictions for 2015"

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