BETA
This is a BETA experience. You may opt-out by clicking here

More From Forbes

Edit Story

R.I.P. PC? A Closer Look At Gloomy IDC Forecast

Following
This article is more than 10 years old.

OK, call it. Time of death for the PC, May 28, 2013. At least, that seems to be what the evidence from IDC suggests.

IDC has revised its forecast for the waning PC market to reflect the greater-than-expected plummet in PC sales in the first quarter of the year. IDC had previously pegged the PC market loss at 1.3 percent, but has updated it to 7.8 percent--a record loss for a single year if the prediction comes true. To paraphrase Mark Twain, though, the rumors of the death of the PC may be greatly exaggerated.

The Fall of the PC

PC sales have dropped precipitously. There are many analysts and pundits who blame Windows 8 for failing to drive demand, but that is a simplistic view that puts way too much responsibility on Microsoft .

Sales are declining in part because of competition from tablets--or even smartphones to a lesser extent--but even if tablets didn't exist the PC market may very well be in decline right now. The reality is that PCs have achieved a sort of equilibrium. The PCs in use today have the processing power to meet the needs of most users, and the incremental improvements in newer models are not sufficient to warrant an investment in a new PC.

Tablets do exist, though, and for the vast majority of users a tablet functions just as well, if not better, for meeting their personal computing needs.

Loren Loverde, Program Vice President, Worldwide Quarterly PC Trackers at IDC, explains in a statement, "Many users are realizing that everyday computing, such as accessing the Web, connecting to social media, sending emails, as well as using a variety of apps, doesn't require a lot of computing power or local storage. Instead, they are putting a premium on access from a variety of smaller devices with longer battery life, an instant-on function, and intuitive touch-centric interfaces,"

Loverde added, "These users have not necessarily given up on PCs as a platform for computing when a more robust environment is needed, but this takes a smaller share of computing time, and users are making do with older systems."

The Rise of the Tablet

While PCs seem to be in a death spiral, tablets are selling almost as fast as vendors can produce them. IDC predicts a nearly 60 percent year over year increase for 2013 tablet sales, and expects tablets to surpass portable PCs this year. IDC forecasts that tablets will exceed the entire PC market by 2015.

According to a statement from Ryan Reith, Program Manager for IDC's Mobility Trackers, "What started as a sign of tough economic times has quickly shifted to a change in the global computing paradigm with mobile being the primary benefactor."

Reith says, "IDC continues to believe that PCs will have an important role in this new era of computing, especially among business users. But for many consumers, a tablet is a simple and elegant solution for core use cases that were previously addressed by the PC."

I spent a month using only an iPad as a full-time replacement for my PC, and more recently I spent a month using only a Surface Pro as a replacement for my MacBook Air. In both cases, I can say that there were specific scenarios where the tablet was no match for a "real PC", but overall my experience supports the assertions from both Loverde and Reith that the tablet is an inexpensive, simple device that is perfectly capable of performing most PC functions.

Post-PC Era or Evolution of PC?

Is the PC dead (or at least dying)? Perhaps. It depends on your interpretation of the term "PC".

It wasn't that long ago that the term PC was reserved specifically for Windows-based computers. However, it has evolved to include Mac OS X and Linux-based systems as well. Technically speaking, PC simply stands for "personal computer", and what defines a personal computer can be somewhat subjective.

Take the IDC data itself. There is a caveat listed under the tablet data, which states, "IDC considers all LCD-based slate devices with screens between 7 and 16 inches as tablets, regardless of whether or not they include a removable keyboard (such as the Surface RT). Convertible devices with non-removable keyboards (such as Lenovo's Yoga) are not counted as Tablets."

The distinction between a tablet and a PC is arbitrary. Using the IDC metrics, a Dell XPS 18 All-In-One is a "PC" because the display is larger than 16 inches, but the Dell Latitude 10 is a tablet because it falls between 7 and 16 inches. Both devices are tablets in terms of their general form factor, and both devices use separate wireless keyboards. By the same token, both devices run the full Windows 8 operating system, and are functionally equivalent to any traditional desktop or laptop Windows PC. Yet, one is counted as a PC and one is not.

Even if IDC counted all Windows 8 tablets as PCs as a function of the fact that they are, in fact, Windows 8 PCs in every other sense of the term, it's still misleading to consider the tablet market as a separate entity from the PC market. A tablet is a personal computer. Period.

Depending on the tablet, it may not work for everyone, and there will be certain applications and scenarios that require a more traditional personal computer, but that's simply a matter of personal preference like choosing between a full tower desktop, or an ultrabook, or choosing between a Dell and an Acer . It doesn't make it an entirely separate market.

Ultimately, PCs aren't dying, they're evolving. One form of PC is in decline, but another form is growing exponentially. The tablet market is expanding much faster than the traditional PC market is shrinking, and combining the two for a more comprehensive perspective on personal computers in general shows that the PC market is still growing.

Related on Forbes: